Knesset Dissolution Vote Becomes Leverage in the Netanyahu-UTJ Standoff

On Wednesday the Knesset unanimously approved a preliminary vote to dissolve the legislature. The bill still requires House Committee review and three further readings before triggering elections. Analysts say the United Torah Judaism (UTJ) alliance is using the vote to pressure Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to advance a draft-exemption law for yeshiva students.

Times of Israel

UTJ, comprising the Agudat Yisrael and Degel HaTorah factions (the latter led by Moshe Gafni), has long demanded a law formally exempting yeshiva students from Israel’s compulsory military service. Netanyahu told Haredi MKs the coalition lacks the votes to pass the bill and asked them to defer it until after a vote. The issue repeatedly threatens the stability of the coalition government, which relies on UTJ’s bloc of seats. The election is scheduled for Oct 27, 2024; Israeli law requires at least three months between dissolution and a poll.

Times of Israel

Netanyahu told Haredi MKs the coalition lacks enough votes for the draft-exemption law and urged postponement until after elections. UTJ framed the dissolution push as a response to the government’s failure to “secure the standing of yeshiva students.” Coalition whip Ofir Katz introduced a coalition-backed dissolution bill, placing the process under coalition control.

Times of Israel

Analysts question whether Netanyahu’s reluctance to advance the draft law stems from electoral calculations or a desire to stay in power. The Blue and White party, led by Benny Gantz, has a separate dissolution bill that could pressure the coalition, but Katz’s control of the House Committee makes its passage unlikely.

Times of Israel

Sources differ on whether an early election would occur if the draft-exemption law passes; some suggest the dissolution could become “essentially meaningless” if delayed. The exact date for the House Committee hearing and the coalition’s final strategy remain unspecified.

Times of Israel

• “That difference of seven weeks between September 1 and October 27 is unlikely to make any difference,” — Dahlia Scheindlin, pollster and political analyst

Times of Israel

• “They want to show Netanyahu, their rabbis and the public that they are doing something,” — Assaf Shapira, director, Israel Democracy Institute

Times of Israel

• “I never really bought into the theory that he doesn’t want to hold elections in October,” — Dahlia Scheindlin, pollster and political analyst

Times of Israel

• “He wanted to take control of the situation,” — Assaf Shapira, director, Israel Democracy Institute

Times of Israel

The House Committee, chaired by Ofir Katz, will decide whether to schedule a rapid vote on the dissolution bill or delay it. Simultaneously, negotiations over the draft-exemption law will intensify as both sides weigh the electoral impact of an early poll against preserving the coalition’s agenda.

Times of Israel