Trump’s Approval Rating Slips to Historic Lows as Midterms Loom

President Donald J. Trump entered his second term with double-digit approval, but recent polling shows a sharp reversal. Civiqs’ daily online tracking poll (106,368 responses, Jan 2025 – May 23 2026) recorded a national approval of 36 % and disapproval of 59 %. The American Research Group survey (May 16-20 2026, 1,100 adults) reported 31 % approval and 64 % disapproval, the lowest level of either term. Fox News (May 15-18 2026) found 39 % approval, while Reuters/Ipsos (May 15-18) measured 34 %. In 36 states the net rating is negative; only 14 states show a positive net.

Newsweek

Trump’s second term has been dominated by a war with Iran that began in February 2026, rising gas prices (average $4.55 / gal nationally) and inflation at 3.8 %. Economic sentiment surveys (Morris Predictive Insights, May 2026) show 70 % of Americans believe the economy is worsening, with 68 % blaming the administration’s policies. These factors intersect with the 2026 midterm elections, traditionally a referendum on the sitting president.

Daily Beast

• Civiqs: 36 % approval, 59 % disapproval; strongest net approval in Wyoming (+26) and West Virginia (+16).

Newsweek

• American Research Group: 31 % approval, 64 % disapproval; net approval –34.

Newsweek

• Fox News: 39 % approval, 61 % disapproval; 29 % approve of economic handling.

Forbes

• Reuters/Ipsos: 34 % approval.

The Asbury Park Press

• Rural America (Fox News, May 2026): 30 % approve, 70 % disapprove; net approval among rural voters –14.

Newsweek

• Economic approval: 29 % approve, 67 % disapprove (American Research Group).

Newsweek

Midterm ballots will test Trump’s agenda despite his absence from the ticket. Historical patterns suggest the party not holding the White House gains seats; however, Republican majorities in both chambers are slim. Persistent low approval—especially among independents (25 % approve) and rural voters—could jeopardize GOP control of the House and Senate.

The Hill

• White House spokesperson Kush Desai defended the economy: “The American economy has been resilient under President Trump because his economic agenda has a proven track record – this same agenda of tax cuts, deregulation, and tariffs unleashed historic job, wage, and economic growth during the first Trump term.”

Daily Beast

• Davis Ingle emphasized electoral legitimacy: “The ultimate poll was November 5 2024,” noting the 2024 victory as the administration’s mandate.

Newsweek

• Trump’s Memorial Day post on Truth Social framed the opposition as “Dumocrats” and praised the military’s “tremendous success.”

Newsweek

• Republican insiders expressed alarm: a House Republican told MS NOW that “the president’s fund for Jan 6 defendants… is a disaster” and that “Republicans are losing the battle.”

‘He’s pushing it too far’: The week Republicans told Trump no

• Democratic analysts (The Guardian, May 2026) highlighted that 68 % of respondents believe Trump prioritizes immigration enforcement over affordability.

The Guardian

• Fox News poll analysis noted erosion among core constituencies: “Trump is losing major ground among working-class whites, rural voters, and even white men.”

New Republic

Polls diverge on the exact approval level: Civiqs (36 %), American Research Group (31 %), Fox News (39 %), Reuters/Ipsos (34 %). Economic approval also varies, from 29 % (American Research Group) to 30 % (Fox News). No source provides a unified metric for midterm voter turnout or the impact of the Iran war on specific demographic groups, leaving a gap in forecasting electoral outcomes.

Forbes

• “Writing on Truth Social, Trump said: "Happy Memorial Day to all, including the Dumocrats, who disrespect our Military and all of the tremendous success that it has had over the last year.” — Donald J. Trump, President (Truth Social)

Newsweek

• “Trump is not the leader of the Republican Party; he is the Republican Party.” — Unnamed Republican consultant, The Hill

The Hill

• “Most primary voters are Donald Trump voters, but not all Donald Trump voters are primary voters. They only show up every four years for Donald Trump.” — Susan Del Percio, GOP strategist, The Hill

The Hill

• “Despite consistently strong GOP support, the president's numbers are leaking a bit,” — Daron Shaw, pollster, Fox News rural poll

Newsweek

• “The decision ensures voters are protected from an unauthorized national database that would have been a goldmine for hackers and a tool for intimidation,” — Bianca Shaw, Common Cause Wisconsin (in response to voter-roll lawsuits)

Newsweek