Full Breakdown
Strategic Resource Shifts Amid the U.S.–Iran Conflict
5/26/2026, 12:15:46 AM
The War’s Immediate Strategic Pressure
Since the United States launched a war against Iran in February, the conflict has strained the supply of advanced weapons and ammunition, prompting a search for critical inputs such as tungsten and stable oil sources. The war has also disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key conduit for one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments.
Tungsten: A Critical War Metal Under Strain
Tungsten, essential for Tomahawk, Patriot and precision-strike missiles, fighter-jet components, and armor-piercing rounds, is dominated by China, which supplies over 80 % of global output. The United States imports more than 6,000 metric tons of processed tungsten annually and has had no active commercial mines since 2015. Almonty Industries’ Sangdong mine in South Korea, reopened in March after a 30-year hiatus, now processes about 1.2 million tons of ore per year and projects a 100-year operating horizon. The company has also moved its headquarters to Montana to align with U.S. defense interests and is pursuing a domestic mine to reduce reliance on Chinese supply.
Brazilian Crude Gains as Gulf Supply Falters
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have accelerated Asian imports of Brazilian crude. Between January and May, Asian purchases rose from roughly 1.2 million bpd in 2025 to about 1.8 million bpd, with China’s imports increasing to 1.316 million bpd and India’s to 238,000 bpd. Petrobras now directs more than 60 % of its exports to China, while U.S. shipments have fallen to near zero. Brazilian officials note that medium-sweet pre-salt grades suit Asian refineries, but distance and freight costs limit Brazil’s capacity to replace Gulf oil long-term.
Official Responses from Governments and Companies
U.S. officials have emphasized that the naval blockade of Iranian vessels will remain until a verified agreement is signed. Senior adviser Mark Cancian warned that restoring U.S. munitions stocks to pre-war levels could take up to four years. Almonty’s chief operating officer described the reopening of the Sangdong mine and the planned U.S. mine as “absolutely critical now and in the future.” Brazilian foreign minister Mauro Vieira pledged increased crude supplies to Japan, and Chinese President Xi Jinping praised Pakistan’s mediating role in the broader peace effort.
Criticism and Opposition to Resource Strategies
Retired Colonel Steve Warren argued that the United States prefers to avoid the hazardous waste and ecosystem disruption associated with tungsten mining, leaving the task to China at lower cost. U.S. Republican senators—including Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz and Roger Wicker—have warned that any settlement that leaves Iran able to control the Strait could embolden regional militias and undermine the war’s objectives. Environmental groups have highlighted the waste and ecological impact of tungsten extraction.
Conflicting Reports and Information Gaps
Sources differ on the extent of Iran’s nuclear concessions: some reports claim Tehran has made no commitment to relinquish enriched uranium, while others cite a U.S. expectation of a future agreement on the stockpile. Oil price data also vary, with Brent quoted at $97.08 per barrel in one report and at $94.61 in another. Additionally, while China’s share of tungsten production is cited as “over 80 %,” the exact proportion of U.S. consumption supplied by China is not quantified.
Data Highlights
- China produces >80 % of global tungsten; the U.S. imports >6,000 t processed tungsten annually.
- Almonty’s Sangdong mine processes ~1.2 million t of ore per year.
- Asian imports of Brazilian crude rose from 1.2 million bpd (2025) to 1.8 million bpd (Jan-May 2026).
- Brent crude fell to $97.08 per barrel; WTI to $91.08 per barrel.
Verbatim Quotes
- “There are very few large-scale tungsten mines on the planet,” — Lewis Black, CEO, Almonty Industries
- “The demand for tungsten is going to only increase,” — Steve Allen, COO, Almonty Industries
- “The disruption caused by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has increased the importance of Brazil as a marginal crude supplier to Asia.” — Sumit Ritolia, Kpler analyst
- “Asia is already close to these so-called "minimum operating levels," Currie told CNBC on the sidelines of the UBS Wealth Conference in Singapore.” — Jeff Currie, Carlyle chief strategy officer
- “If it is perceived in the region that a deal with Iran allows the regime to survive and become more powerful over time, we will have poured gasoline on the conflicts in Lebanon and Iraq,” — Lindsey Graham, U.S. Senator (R-SC)
- “Both sides must take their time and get it right” — Donald Trump, President of the United States (Truth Social)
Outlook: Supply Chains and Peace Negotiations
The war’s pressure on tungsten and oil markets is prompting diversification efforts, including the revival of non-Chinese tungsten sources and expanded Brazilian crude shipments. Simultaneously, diplomatic channels—featuring the United States, Iran, China, Pakistan and regional actors—continue to negotiate a framework for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a step that could stabilize both strategic material supplies and global energy markets.
