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Gold Splits as Trump Vows Iran War, Fed Hike Expected

5/26/2026

34 2 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

On May 26, spot gold dropped to $4,526.86 after President Donald Trump said the United States would continue the war in Iran, while futures rose to $4,527.90.
FedWatch gave a 56% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike by December, prompting Secretary of State Marco Rubio to warn it could pressure gold.
Analyst Jim Wyckoff said the spot-futures split shows investors still favor gold despite bond-market expectations of a rate increase.

History

Historical Context

The 1979 Iranian Revolution cut global oil output by about four percent, sending crude prices more than double and pushing gold to a record $850 per ounce. Decades later, President Donald Trump’s May 2024 war warning lifted spot gold to $4,526.86, while the Federal Reserve’s possible rate hike fuels similar hedge demand, echoing the 1979 oil-price shock.

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Story summary

On May 26, spot gold dropped to $4,526.86 after President Donald Trump said the United States would continue the war in Iran, while futures rose to $4,527.90.
FedWatch gave a 56% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike by December, prompting Secretary of State Marco Rubio to warn it could pressure gold.
Analyst Jim Wyckoff said the spot-futures split shows investors still favor gold despite bond-market expectations of a rate increase.

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