Full Breakdown
Andy Burnham’s Makerfield By-election: A Potential Turning Point for Labour
5/26/2026, 9:13:29 PM
Political Context
Local elections in 2024 dealt a significant setback to Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour government, prompting the resignation of health secretary Wes Streeting. Surveys place Labour’s national support in the low-30s, while Reform UK polls in the high-20s. In Makerfield, a Survation poll shows Burnham at 43 percent versus Reform’s 40 percent; a More in Common survey puts Labour under Burnham at 30 percent nationally, ahead of Reform (27 percent) and the Conservatives (20 percent). The leadership uncertainty has lifted 30-year gilt yields to 5.86 percent.
Burnham’s Campaign
Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham began his Makerfield campaign on 18 June, calling it “a vote to change Labour”. His “business-friendly socialism” pledges public control of services and no new taxes, while supporting immigration reforms and a further fall in net migration. He now says “re-running” the EU debate would be damaging. His team includes chief of staff Kevin Lee, political lead Anneliese Midgley and former Starmer chief of staff Sue Gray, who has advised him on a possible transition to government.
Official Statements & Responses
Labour’s Darren Jones warned “there’s a lot of fantasy politics” and called for a debate on electoral strategy. Burnham stressed continuity with Starmer on fiscal rules and openness to tax proposals. Starmer wrote to TNT Sports urging the Champions League final to stay free, saying “hard-working people should not have to worry about forking out for a subscription”.
Criticism & Opposition
Reform UK attacks Burnham’s EU comments as a revival of a settled debate, saying it no longer motivates voters. Labour’s left says his “business-friendly socialism” favours private investment over social housing and offers little change. Liam Byrne called the party’s stance “managerial meh”, warning that without rapid reform Labour risks decline.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls differ on Burnham’s appeal: Survation shows a narrow Makerfield lead, while More in Common indicates modest national advantage. His EU stance swings between personal support for re-joining and a strategic avoidance of the debate. No timetable for a post-by-election leadership contest has been disclosed.
Verbatim Quotes
- “I think even if Andy Burnham doesn’t win in Makerfield there will be a change of the prime minister,” — Jess Phillips, minister
- “There’s a lot of fantasy politics going on right now inside the Labour party … in terms of who is up, who is down, who will be in what position.” — Darren Jones, chief secretary
- “Nothing very major is going to happen in government until this leadership crisis is resolved,” — Philip Rutman, chair of WA Communications
- “If we don’t get our shit together pretty quickly, then things are going to go south.” — Liam Byrne, Labour MP
What’s Next
If Burnham wins Makerfield, he is expected to trigger a leadership contest, though allies say he may delay an immediate bid. The result will shape Labour’s policy agenda, electoral strategy and its ability to present a united front before the next general election.
