U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Depletes Amid Iran Conflict and Record Exports

U.S. crude stocks fell by 17.8 million barrels in the week to May 15, leaving crude inventories—excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve—at 445 million barrels, about 2 % below the five-year average. At this pace, analysts expect stocks to drop below 400 million barrels within nine weeks, a level not seen since 2014.

Newsweek

The drawdown follows the February 28 closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which once moved one-fifth of world oil. The shutdown has lifted prices to multi-year highs. In March, Trump administration announced a 172 million-barrel SPR release over 120 days, echoing President Joe Biden’s 2022 release of 180 million barrels after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Newsweek

A 17.8 million-barrel draw has cut crude to 445 million barrels, while distillate stocks sit well below levels. At the current rate, U.S. crude could fall under 400 million barrels within nine weeks. SPR releases since 2022 total about 352 million barrels.

Newsweek

The administration frames the SPR drawdown as a measure to cushion consumers from supply shock. President Donald Trump says the releases are “necessary to blunt the economic impact” and that the reserve can be refilled when prices ease. Officials note Presidents Biden and Trump have used the SPR to pressure gasoline and diesel prices.

Newsweek

Representative Ro Khanna asks, “Why would we be sending our oil overseas when Americans are getting fleeced at the pump?” Khanna proposes banning exports when gasoline exceeds $3.12 per gallon for seven days. Economist Willy C. Shih warns that export restrictions would “undermine the U.S. position in the world” and could lift global oil prices.

Newsweek

Tom Kloza warns that “we’ve only just begun” to feel the impact of falling inventories. Bob McNally says drawdowns have acted as “shock absorbers” but that “as those inventories drop to operational minimum levels this summer, that shock absorber effect will wear off.” Addressing Hormuz supply loss will require “demand reductions, which require even larger oil prices.”

Newsweek

Some analysts say SPR releases have done little to curb consumer prices, while others expect domestic costs to rise as U.S. exports increase. The EIA has not provided a timetable for refilling the reserve, leaving uncertainty about how long United States can sustain current export levels without jeopardizing emergency supplies.

Newsweek

• “To quote the Carpenters, ‘We’ve Only Just Begun,’” — Tom Kloza, energy advisor, Gulf Oil

Newsweek

• “Inventory drawdowns have acted as shock absorbers so far, helping to prevent oil prices from soaring even higher,” — Bob McNally, Rapidan Energy Group

Newsweek

• “Both Presidents Biden and Trump have used it to put near term downward pressure on domestic gasoline/diesel/fuel prices,” — Willy C. Shih, International Trade

Newsweek

• “Why would we be sending our oil overseas when Americans are getting fleeced at the pump?” — Ro Khanna, Representative

Newsweek

Analysts warn that without a resolution to the Persian Gulf tension, United States could “drain most of the reserve” before summer ends. Policymakers must balance exports that support markets against preserving emergency supplies for domestic stability.

Newsweek