Full Breakdown
North American Drought Deepens as Snowpack Vanishes and El Niño Looms
5/27/2026, 11:15:26 AM
Overview of the Drought Crisis
A record-low winter snowpack has left the western United States, the Southeast, and parts of British Columbia facing severe water shortages. In Colorado, 70 % of the West is classified as drought, while Utah’s governor declared a state-wide drought emergency. South Carolina’s Drought Response Committee maintains a severe drought status for all 46 counties, and Dawson Creek, B.C., has lifted Stage 3 water restrictions but warns that the Kiskatinaw River remains vulnerable.
Recent Winter and Snowpack Deficits
The 2025-26 winter produced “one of the hottest, driest winters ever” across the Rockies, leaving river basins with as little as 10 % of normal snowpack. Colorado’s mountain snowpack maps glow a four-alarm red, and Utah’s record-low snowpack is melting without replenishment. In the Canadian Peace region, only one millimetre of rain was recorded at Dawson Creek airport by May 24, underscoring the limited precipitation despite a brief spring runoff.
Quantitative Snapshot
- Colorado’s Fort Collins recorded 3.64 in. of precipitation in May (average 2.72 in.), yet the annual total through May remains 4.89 in. of the 7.01 in. normal.
- The University of Nebraska drought monitor shows moderate drought across most of Larimer County, with severe drought in its western fringe; the central mountains stay in exceptional drought.
- Utah faces a 33-50 % chance of above-average precipitation June-August, and a 40-50 % probability of above-average temperatures.
- South Carolina received only seven inches of rain from January-April 2026, the driest spring on record for the state.
- Dawson Creek’s reservoirs can store more than 170 days of water, but spring rain totals remain negligible.
Government and Agency Responses
Governor Spencer Cox issued a formal drought declaration for Utah, while the Colorado Climate Center noted decreasing drought designations statewide except in the central mountains. The South Carolina Drought Response Committee reaffirmed a severe drought status, citing low streamflows, declining groundwater, and heightened wildfire risk. Dawson Creek’s city council voted to end Stage 3 restrictions, returning to Stage 1 watering schedules, and announced a forthcoming review of a potential $100 million pipeline to the Peace River. Duke Energy’s Keowee-Toxaway Drought Management Advisory Group continues to operate under stage 2 protocols, adjusting reservoir releases to protect downstream needs.
Local Impacts and Community Actions
In Cedaredge, Colo., farmer Erik Fritchman is uprooting apple and peach saplings rather than risk their death. Kearny, Ariz., mayoral officials urged residents to limit showers and reuse clothing to stretch water supplies. Spartanburg Water asked customers to voluntarily restrict irrigation from 8 p.m. to 6 a.m., while Duke Energy monitors lake levels and operates hydroelectric projects under drought guidelines.
Concerns and Critiques
Councillor Charlie Parlsow warned of a “strong complacency culture” in the Peace region, emphasizing that multi-year drought trends demand sustained water-security planning. Meteorologist Basil Newmerzhysky cautioned that a strengthening El Niño could delay the western monsoon by weeks, potentially exacerbating fire risk in Utah.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Forecasts vary on the magnitude of expected summer precipitation: Colorado’s Climate Prediction Center cites an 82 % chance of El Niño by July, yet the exact increase in rainfall remains uncertain. Utah’s models predict above-average precipitation but cannot quantify the amount, leaving water managers without precise guidance.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Better that, he said, than watch them die of thirst.” — Erik Fritchman, farmer, Cedaredge, Colo.
- “It's kind of what we've been hoping for,” — Matt Johnson, meteorologist, KSL
- “It's really tricky right now. If the El Niño strengthens a little bit more, that monsoon can be delayed by several weeks,” — Basil Newmerzhysky, fire meteorologist, Great Basin Coordination Center
- “You may see other indicators on the news, and there are other drought indicators there that the Drought Response Committee reviews and considers when making their declarations,” — Hope Mizzell, state climatologist, SCDNR
- “Bearhole is still flowing, the river's still flowing, reservoirs are full,” — Kevin Henderson, chief administrative officer, City of Dawson Creek
- “If you believe in science, and climate science is pretty sophisticated, this pattern of drought is not a one-year, two-year [thing]. It's been a three- or four-year thing here, maybe five years,” — Charlie Parlsow, councillor, Dawson Creek
Outlook for Summer and Beyond
The Climate Prediction Center projects an 82 % chance of El Niño development by July, with a 37 % chance of a “super” El Niño. If realized, the pattern could bring sporadic, intense thunderstorms to the western monsoon corridor while leaving early summer unusually dry. Water managers in Colorado, Utah, South Carolina, and British Columbia are preparing contingency plans that include voluntary restrictions, reservoir adjustments, and long-term infrastructure projects to mitigate the risk of another prolonged drought season.
