Full Breakdown
European Firms Show Slightly More Optimism in China Amid Rising EU-China Tensions
5/27/2026, 11:34:01 AM
Improving Sentiment in the 2026 EU Chamber Survey
The EU Chamber of Commerce in China released its 2026 Business Confidence Survey (549 firms) on 27 May. Optimism about industry growth rose to 35 % from 29 % in 2025, while the share seeing a more politicised environment fell to 47 %, the lowest since 2023. 68 % still view conditions as more difficult, down from 73 % a year earlier, and optimism about profitability rose to 17 %.
Background – Trade Friction and Recent Diplomatic Visits
Tensions have risen as the European Commission prepares an internal debate on trade-restriction tools to curb a Chinese export surge blamed on weak demand and subsidies. Beijing’s commerce ministry warned of countermeasures if the EU proceeds. Senior EU leaders—including President Emmanuel Macron (December), parliamentary leader Friedrich Merz (February), Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez (April) and Economy Minister Katherina Reiche (currently)—have visited China.
Key Data Points
- Growth optimism: 35 % (up from 29 % in 2025).
- Politicisation perception: 47 % of firms, lowest since 2023.
- Business difficulty: 68 % say conditions worsened, down from 73 % a year earlier.
- Profitability outlook: 17 % optimistic, a five-point rise.
- Export-control impact: 32 % report supply-chain disruptions linked to Chinese export controls.
Official Statements & Responses
The European Commission will debate tougher trade measures on 31 May. Beijing’s commerce ministry warned of “countermeasures” if the EU moves ahead. EU Chamber president Jens Eskelund called for more transparent export-license procedures, calling such reforms “low-hanging fruit” for confidence. German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche is meeting Chinese officials on market access and regulatory issues.
Criticism & Opposition
European firms say new EU supply-chain rules and tighter foreign-investment limits raise operational risk in China. Chinese officials have expressed discontent with EU moves to favour domestic producers in public procurement and to curb foreign investment, arguing these steps distort competition. Within the EU, internal disagreements have delayed the Industrial Accelerator Act, a plan to boost European manufacturers that Beijing has criticised as “enraging.”
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The survey shows a modest confidence rebound, yet sentiment remains near historic lows across metrics such as ease of doing business and profitability expectations. Data do not break down optimism by sector, leaving uncertainty about which industries drive the improvement.
Verbatim Quotes
- “crisis fatigue,” — Denis Depoux, Global Managing Director, Roland Berger
- “the intensity of the deterioration in confidence in China’s business environment has eased” — EU Chamber of Commerce survey
- “European firms have “adjusted in many different ways, they got used to the situation, and expectations of headquarters have adjusted as well,” said Depoux.” — Denis Depoux
- “Still, Eskelund said China had performed "comparatively" well compared with other markets hit by volatility, with some European companies managing to restore profitability.” — Jens Eskelund
What’s Next
The European Commission’s debate will decide whether new trade tools targeting Chinese imports are adopted. The EU Chamber will keep monitoring confidence and push for transparent export-license rules. Chinese authorities are expected to detail countermeasures if EU restrictions proceed.
