Trump Administration’s “Donroe Doctrine” Fuels Surge in Violence Across the Americas

President Donald Trump launched the “Donroe Doctrine,” a reinterpretation of the 1823 Monroe Doctrine, to legitimize heightened diplomatic and military activity in the Western Hemisphere. The policy underlies U.S. strikes on civilian-identified drug boats, CIA operations in Mexico, and Ecuador’s counter-cartel mission “Operation Total Extermination.” ACLED analysts Sandra Pellegrini and Tiziano Breda have studied its effects.

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The doctrine arose amid escalating concerns over transnational organized crime and drug trafficking. By casting cartels as a national security threat, the administration expanded U.S. influence in Latin America, employing remote-violence tactics.

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ACLED reports 59 U.S. boat strikes killing 195 civilians since 2023; Mexican cartels’ drone strikes rose 567 % and Colombian strikes jumped from one to 107, a 10,600 % increase. In Ecuador, gangs rose from 24 to 37, and the extradition of Los Choneros leader José Adolfo Macías enabled Los Lobos to expand, sparking clashes. Security forces killed nearly 6,900 people in the latest year, the highest total since 2018.

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The administration claims the doctrine protects U.S. security and curtails illicit trafficking. Federal prosecutors in Florida unsealed an indictment of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro for a 1993 plane downing. Democratic lawmakers, including Rep. Jim Himes, argue the policy creates a “climate of impunity” and exaggerates threats, warning it may serve as a pretext for invasion.

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The escalation of militarized security tactics has fragmented criminal groups, intensified competition, and increased civilian exposure to lethal force, raising regional instability and challenging diplomatic relations between the United States and Latin American nations.

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Congressional hearings on the Donroe Doctrine are scheduled for the coming months, and human-rights groups plan expanded monitoring of drone and boat-strike operations. The outcome of Raúl Castro’s indictment may further shape U.S. policy in the hemisphere.

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• “U.S. pressure on organized crime is accelerating the spread of militarized security approaches in the region,” — Sandra Pellegrini and Tiziano Breda, ACLED analysts

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• “Growing volatility in the organized crime ecosystem will likely fuel an increase in violence throughout the rest of Trump’s term, potentially undermining any short-term improvements achieved through hardline approaches.” — Sandra Pellegrini and Tiziano Breda, ACLED analysts

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• “In countries where cartels’ revenue sources are most diversified, the spread of militarized security strategies has led to counterproductive results, such as group fragmentation and intensified competition,” — Sandra Pellegrini and Tiziano Breda, ACLED analysts

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• “Look, the Cuban regime is an appalling regime, but it is no more a national security threat than Nicaragua is. It’s just insane to say that it is, and especially if it’s done in the service of military action,” — Rep. Jim Himes, D-Conn., House Intelligence Committee

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