Prediction Markets Boom as Men Turn War and Politics into High-Stakes Bets

Polymarket and Kalshi host wagers on political and geopolitical events. Polymarket recorded $33 million on a question about the Iranian regime; Kalshi posted $13 billion in March. Both platforms list live questions from US-Iran ceasefires to U.S. election outcomes.

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Growth accelerated during the COVID-19 pandemic as isolated users sought online income streams. Men now comprise roughly 75 percent of Kalshi’s traders. Participants cite rapid feedback from real-time news and data-driven strategies as primary attractions.

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Trader “aenews,” a former astronomy graduate student, reports $3 million in earnings, including a $175,000 win on a climate-record question. “Champ,” a 27-year-old from Tulsa, turned early profits into a YouTube channel and is building software to “exploit prediction markets.” IT professional Caleb Davies has placed $30 million on Kalshi, noting a $120,000 win against a 2025 spending cut and a $60,000 loss on a single bet.

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Analysts project prediction-market volume to reach $1 trillion by 2030. Polymarket and Kalshi together reported $60 billion in 2026, up from $51 billion in 2025. Platforms say stakes sharpen signals; critics warn of a “gamification of ruination.”

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Kalshi, a federally regulated exchange, says it bans markets tied to war, death, and assassination, citing “perverse incentives.” Elisabeth Diana, Director of Communications at Kalshi, confirmed the policy. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversees derivatives trading on the platform. Kalshi disclosed fining and suspending three U.S. politicians for betting on their own elections.

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Dr. Timothy Fong, professor of psychiatry at UCLA, describes the phenomenon as “instant gratification” that can erode empathy, likening it to “Roman gladiators.” Todd Phillips, a Georgia State University professor and former CFTC advisory board member, warned that win rates of 80-100 percent suggest gambling rather than finance, urging government intervention. A study called prediction markets a “public health threat” due to behavioral addiction and democratic manipulation.

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A DOJ indictment alleges a U.S. soldier used classified information to bet on Polymarket. While Kalshi asserts bans on war-related markets, questions about US-Iran ceasefires remain, indicating enforcement inconsistencies. Exact numbers of prohibited markets are not disclosed.

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• “In total, I’ve made $3 million on prediction markets, almost entirely in the past 2 years,” — aenews, prediction-market trader

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• “They like competition. They like stuff,” — Dr. Timothy Fong, Professor of Psychiatry, UCLA

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• “DISGUSTING,” — Seth Moulton, Massachusetts Democratic Representative (posted to X)

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• “So much of what’s happening on prediction markets is gambling and not finance. With an 80, 90, 100 percent win rate—that’s the type of thing where I think the government needs to get involved and needs to be looking at,” — Todd Phillips, Professor, Georgia State University

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Projected volume growth is prompting heightened CFTC scrutiny and possible legislative proposals to address insider-trading risks and market-integrity concerns. Industry participants anticipate tighter compliance as regulators balance financial innovation with public-health concerns.

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