Climate Change Likely to Amplify Large Hail Events, New Study Finds

Three-dimensional atmospheric models estimate hailstones > 1.2 inches will be 38 % more common under modest emissions and 47 % under high emissions by 2100; smaller hail will decline 4-8 %. Hail already costs the U.S. about $10 billion and the world $80 billion annually.

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Earlier hail studies concentrated on the United States and on frequency, not size. The new work adds global coverage and three-dimensional modeling of thermodynamic processes. Warmer air holds ~4 % more water vapor per degree Fahrenheit, strengthening updrafts that favor larger hail while reducing cold layers that sustain small hail.

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The lead authors are based in China; key contributors include John Allen, meteorology professor at Central Michigan University, Andreas Prein of ETH Zurich, and Walker Ashley of Northern Illinois University. Field measurements were gathered by the Husky Hail Hunter team during Project ICECHIP storms in Texas, where hailstones were sampled and weighed.

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Model outputs show the greatest rise in large hail across the U.S. Northern Plains, Argentina, Europe and Canada, while tropical zones may see fewer large stones as higher temperatures melt them aloft. Stones around 2 inches can shatter roofs, solar panels and vehicles, amplifying the existing $10 billion U.S. and $80 billion global hail damage as development expands into hail-prone areas.

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John Allen warned that building codes rarely address hail risk, urging designers to embed resilience. Andreas Prein stressed that 2-inch hail can devastate vehicles, roofs and solar arrays. Walker Ashley noted that loss outcomes hinge on land-use choices and construction standards, critiquing current design practices that overlook hail.

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The analysis concentrates on hail size and does not assess frequency changes, leaving a gap relative to earlier U.S.-focused frequency studies. Regional projections vary with emissions pathways, creating uncertainty about exact future hail patterns.

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• “We’ve seen record hailstones in recent years. I find this extremely concerning because we’re not really building our environment to be resilient to hail. We don’t include this in our design standards, for example, for built homes in the U.S. or indeed internationally.” — John Allen, meteorology professor, Central Michigan University

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• “can cause major damage to vehicles, roofs, solar panels, and other infrastructure,” — Andreas Prein, climate scientist, ETH Zurich

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• “One hole on a roof from a single hailstone can be patched, but many large stones hitting that roof usually means an expensive roof replacement, Allen said.” — John Allen, meteorology professor, Central Michigan University

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• “Climate change may be increasing the potential for larger, more damaging hail in some regions, but the future loss signal will also depend heavily on where people build, what they build, how resilient those structures are, and how land use changes.” — Walker Ashley, meteorology professor, Northern Illinois University

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• “This is a meaningful climate signal,” — Walker Ashley, meteorology professor, Northern Illinois University

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