Full Breakdown
Texas Senate Race Heats Up: Paxton vs. Talarico
5/28/2026, 4:49:39 AM
Race Overview
Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton captured the Texas Senate nomination after a 28-point primary victory over incumbent Senator John Cornyn. In the May 28 runoff, Paxton defeated fellow Republican Dan McCarthy, but turnout fell 36 percent, leaving 778,139 fewer voters than the March primary. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, a 37-year-old aspiring Presbyterian minister, secured the Democratic nomination, setting up a contest analysts deem the most competitive statewide race in Texas since Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 bid.
Candidate Backgrounds
Paxton, a self-identified MAGA figure, has repeatedly sued federal officials, including Presidents Obama and Biden, and sought to overturn the 2020 election. He faced securities-fraud indictments that were dismissed after community service and an ethics course, a suspension by the Texas House, and an impeachment trial that ended in acquittal. Former President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton after initially suggesting Cornyn was vulnerable. Talarico’s campaign emphasizes economic populism and a “love over hate” message. Earlier remarks that “God is nonbinary” and that there are six biological sexes sparked criticism; he later clarified that he recognizes two sexes while urging dignity for individuals with chromosomal variations.
Numbers, Funding, and Historical Context
Paxton’s primary win was 28 points over Cornyn. Runoff turnout dropped 36 percent, with 778,139 fewer voters. In 2018, Ted Cruz beat Beto O’Rourke by roughly 215,000 votes. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has poured unprecedented money into Paxton’s campaign and fully endorsed him. Polls show Talarico enjoys higher favorability than both Paxton and Trump among Texas voters. Economic concerns—high inflation, rising gas prices linked to the Iran-related oil market—add urgency to the race.
Official Statements & Responses
Democratic strategist Matt Angle warned that Republicans risk a “superficial attack campaign” while Texans face hardship. Republican strategist Vinny Minchillo said the campaign has not yet turned “ugly.” Trump announced upcoming rallies, teasing that “Texas, this will be FUN!” Talarico told CBS he recognizes two sexes and urges dignity for those with chromosomal differences.
Criticism & Opposition
Republicans have labeled Talarico the “woke DEI candidate of all woke DEI candidates,” aiming to portray him as out-of-touch with Texas culture. Democrats focus on Paxton’s legal controversies and the broader record of Republican governance, citing three decades of perceived mismanagement.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on whether Paxton’s securities-fraud indictment was fully resolved after community service or remains a lingering political liability. Talarico’s earlier gender statements—six biological sexes and “God is nonbinary”—are contested, and it is unclear how his later clarification has affected voter attitudes.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Will Republicans get away with running a superficial attack campaign when Texans are really hurting?” — Matt Angle, state Democratic strategist
- “We have not seen ugly yet,” — Vinny Minchillo, Texas Republican strategist
- “Texas, this will be FUN!” — Donald Trump, former president (Truth Social)
- “the woke DEI candidate of all woke DEI candidates. And pound him, pound him, pound him.” — Vinny Minchillo, Texas Republican strategist
