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WMO predicts 2026-30 record heat, 91% chance 1.5 °C rise.

5/28/2026

23 3 Full Breakdown

Summary

WMO Predicts Record Heat

WMO released a UK Met Office report forecasting record global temperatures for 2026-2030.
The report projects the global mean temperature 1.3 °C–1.9 °C above the 1850-1900 average.
It gives a 91 % chance temperatures will exceed 1.5 °C for at least one year between 2026 and 2030.
Dr Leon Hermanson notes an El Niño in late 2026 raises odds of a 2027 record and that Arctic winters 2026-2030 may be 2.8 °C above the 1991-2020 average.

Summary

WMO Wet Forecast

The report forecasts wetter May-September weather in northern Europe, Alaska, Siberia and the Sahel.
It predicts below-average rainfall across the Amazon basin for the same period.
It projects a strong El Niño emerging this winter and persisting into 2027, raising global temperatures.
The wet-dry contrast may raise flood danger in Europe and strain water and crops in the Amazon, Siberia and the Sahel.

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WMO Predicts Record Heat

WMO released a UK Met Office report forecasting record global temperatures for 2026-2030.
The report projects the global mean temperature 1.3 °C–1.9 °C above the 1850-1900 average.
It gives a 91 % chance temperatures will exceed 1.5 °C for at least one year between 2026 and 2030.
Dr Leon Hermanson notes an El Niño in late 2026 raises odds of a 2027 record and that Arctic winters 2026-2030 may be 2.8 °C above the 1991-2020 average.

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