Full Breakdown
California Gubernatorial Race Tightens Ahead of June Primary
5/28/2026, 1:38:23 PM
Core Contest: Becerra, Hilton, and Steyer Lead in Late-Stage Polls
Late-May polling shows Democrat Xavier Becerra at 23 % and Republican Steve Hilton at 20 % of likely voters in the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) survey, with fellow Democrat Tom Steyer at 15 % (PPIC, May 14-18). Competing surveys paint a similar but not identical picture: an Echelon Insights poll (May 22) lists Hilton at 25 % and Becerra at 15 %; a Global Strategy Group poll (May 18-21) puts Hilton at 22 % and Becerra and Steyer tied at 19 % each. All polls agree that the top-two primary will advance the two highest-vote-getters, regardless of party, to the November ballot.
Background: Top-Two Primary and a Crowded Field
California’s open “top-two” primary, adopted after Proposition 14 (2010), places all candidates on a single ballot and advances the two vote-getters to the general election. The system was intended to broaden voter choice, but critics warn it can produce two candidates from the same party, potentially locking out the opposition. Political science professor Thad Kousser notes that the system “guarantees a spot on the November ballot” for any candidate who emerges from the field, while also acknowledging concerns about party lockout.
Key Candidates and Their Positions
- Xavier Becerra – Former U.S. Health and Human Services secretary and California attorney general; emphasizes experience, competence, and accelerating affordable-housing construction.
- Steve Hilton – Former Fox News commentator and adviser to former UK Prime Minister David Cameron; endorsed by former President Donald Trump, frames his campaign as a counter to “Democratic policies” driving high living costs.
- Tom Steyer – Billionaire philanthropist; self-funds a record-breaking $212 million campaign, focuses on corporate responsibility for cost-of-living pressures.
- Chad Bianco – Riverside County sheriff; trails in polls but remains the leading Republican after Hilton’s surge.
- Betty Yee – Former state controller; withdrew in April and endorsed Steyer.
- Eric Swalwell – Former U.S. representative; exited the race after sexual-assault allegations.
Poll Data and Divergent Numbers
Across five recent surveys, Becerra’s support ranges from 15 % (Echelon) to 23 % (PPIC). Hilton’s numbers vary from 20 % (PPIC) to 25 % (Echelon). Steyer’s share spans 15 % (PPIC) to 22 % (Global Strategy). The variation reflects differing sample frames, margins of error (±3.2 % to ±3.5 %), and timing relative to campaign events such as Trump’s endorsement and Swalwell’s withdrawal.
Policy Stakes: Wealth Tax, Voter ID, and Cost of Living
A proposed one-time 5 % wealth tax on assets over $1 billion leads the ballot-initiative field with 54 % overall support (76 % among Democrats, 82 % opposition from Republicans). Voter-identification requirements split the electorate 49 % for, 51 % against. Cost-of-living concerns dominate voter priorities; candidates differ on remedies, from Hilton’s call to roll back “Democratic policies” to Becerra’s push for better implementation of existing housing programs.
Official Statements & Responses
PPIC director Mark Baldassare described Becerra’s position as “very strong,” noting that a Democrat-Republican matchup aligns with California’s voter-registration advantage. The Trump endorsement of Hilton was cited as a catalyst for his surge among Republican voters. Becerra’s campaign emphasizes competence, stating that “people are paying attention” and that his coalition seeks relief from rising expenses.
Criticism & Opposition
Critics flag Becerra’s past ties to the oil industry, questioning his regulatory resolve. Steyer’s self-financing draws scrutiny for potentially eclipsing other candidates’ messages. Hilton’s Trump endorsement fuels concerns about national partisan influence in a state-wide race. Advocacy groups oppose the top-two system, warning it could diminish voter choice.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls disagree on the exact ranking of the top three candidates, and neither the wealth-tax nor voter-ID measures have formally qualified for the November ballot despite sufficient signatures. Detailed donor-flow data for Becerra’s campaign remain unreported.
Verbatim Quotes
- “He’s in a very strong position now,” — Mark Baldassare, PPIC Statewide Survey Director
- “He is a truly fine man, one who has watched as this once great State has gone to Hell,” — Donald Trump, Truth Social post
- “Our lead is growing,” — Steve Hilton, X post
- “I took on the oil industry as attorney general. The record speaks for itself,” — Xavier Becerra, ABC7 interview
- “I will fight the serious, false allegations that have been made — but that’s my fight, not a campaign’s.” — Eric Swalwell, X post
What’s Next: Primary Timeline and Ballot Measures
The June 2 primary opens at 7 a.m. and closes at 8 p.m. Early voting began May 23; mail-in ballots must be postmarked by Election Day and received within seven days. Voter-identification and wealth-tax initiatives remain pending certification. The two candidates emerging from the primary will contest the November 3 general election, shaping California’s policy direction on housing, taxation, and election administration.
