Full Breakdown
27 Young Non-EU Migrants Hired for Every Young Briton Since 2020: A Labour-Market Deep-Dive
5/28/2026, 8:27:48 PM
Background & Context
The Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) analysed HMRC payroll data (July 2014–Dec 2025) on the post-Brexit points-based immigration system, which scrapped the Resident Labour Market Test that required employers to advertise jobs to domestic workers before granting work visas.
Core Findings
From Jan 2020 to Dec 2025 non-EU workers under 25 rose from 82 000 to 370 000 (355 % increase, +290 000). UK-national under-25 payrolls grew by only 11 000, yielding a 27:1 ratio of migrant to British hires. In 2024-25 non-EU under-25 payrolls added 33 200 while UK-national under-25 jobs fell by 32 200.
Data & Statistics
Non-EU under-25 payrolls rose to 370 900 (+289 400). UK-national under-25 payrolls rose by 11 000. NEETs (16-24) grew by ~200 000 to 957 000, near one million. Retail and hospitality saw non-EU workers increase by 473 000 (doubling) while UK nationals fell by 252 000. Government forecasts warn NEETs could reach 1.25 million within five years, costing up to £125 billion annually.
Official Government Statements & Responses
Ministers urged policymakers not to “duck the role of immigration” in youth unemployment. The Treasury’s Future Workforce Credit, a tax cut equal to 30 % of a NEET’s salary, aims to lower hiring costs for British youth. The Labour “Youth Guarantee” promises expanded training and apprenticeships, while the Department for Work and Pensions cites the £125 billion cost as a rationale for tighter migration controls.
Criticism & Opposition
The CSJ contends that record non-EU inflows are displacing native youth from entry-level jobs. Sir Iain Duncan Smith warned that “we risk losing an entire generation” if policies continue. Business leaders, including the chief executive of Next, argue that rising migration, higher minimum wages and weak growth price British youngsters out of the labour market.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Joe Shalam, Policy Director at the Centre for Social Justice, said: Alan Milburn has powerfully exposed the scandal of nearly one million young people being left without work or training.” — Joe Shalam, Policy Director, CSJ
- “Starter roles are simply vanishing across the jobs market, made worse of course by rising costs for employers.” — Joe Shalam, Policy Director, CSJ
- “We are at risk of a lost generation,” — Alan Milburn, former Health Secretary
- “Ending the sickness benefit free for all, where young people are written off claiming depression or anxiety.” — Joe Shalam, Policy Director, CSJ
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
HMRC data do not separate 16- and 17-year-old workers, using an under-18 proxy. Slight differences in the baseline non-EU under-25 count (81 500 vs 82 000) appear across sources but do not change the 27:1 ratio.
Implications & Next Steps
The CSJ urges reinstating the Resident Labour Market Test, tightening health-related benefits for mild mental-health conditions, and expanding vocational routes. Aligning immigration policy with the Youth Guarantee is seen as essential to curb the projected NEET rise and the £125 billion fiscal burden.
