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Rubio Near Tie with Vance, Leads Hispanic Voters

5/28/2026

48 8 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s surge to a near-tie with Vice President JD Vance has made the 2028 Republican primary a two-way race.
An Emerson College poll gives Vance 36% and Rubio 35% support among Republican primary voters.
Rubio leads Hispanic voters 70% to 15% and post-graduate voters 68% to 4%.
President Donald Trump’s approval is 39% with 55% disapproval while Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot 50% to 41%.

History

Historical Context

After a crowded 2016 Republican field, Donald Trump secured the nomination by winning New Hampshire (35% of the vote) and South Carolina, becoming the presumptive nominee on May 26 2016 and formally nominated on July 19 2016. The 2016 upset resurfaces as an Emerson College poll shows Marco Rubio at 35% and JD Vance at 36% in the 2028 Republican primary, prompting GOP strategists to reassess.

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Story summary

Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s surge to a near-tie with Vice President JD Vance has made the 2028 Republican primary a two-way race.
An Emerson College poll gives Vance 36% and Rubio 35% support among Republican primary voters.
Rubio leads Hispanic voters 70% to 15% and post-graduate voters 68% to 4%.
President Donald Trump’s approval is 39% with 55% disapproval while Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot 50% to 41%.

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