UN WMO Warns Imminent Record-Breaking Global Heat

The World Meteorological Organization’s 2026 assessment, by the UK Met Office, gives an 86 % chance that one year between 2026-2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest on record and a 75 % chance that the five-year average will exceed 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, while the chance of a year exceeding 2 °C is under 1 %. A 96 % likelihood of an El Niño from December 2026 to February 2027, plus a 35 % chance of a super El Niño, raises temperature risk. The report projects Arctic winters 2.8 °C above recent averages—over three times the global rate—and forecasts wetter conditions for northern Europe, the Sahel, Alaska and Siberia, with a drier Amazon basin. Rising carbon-dioxide emissions from fossil fuels reinforce the warming trend.

The Guardian

Data estimate that climate-related heat stress now claims one life per minute, a rate projected to rise if emissions persist. The heatwave in the United Kingdom and Europe has produced record-breaking temperatures. UK meteorological agencies reported temperature records broken in multiple locations. Exceeding the 1.5 °C threshold raises the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, storms and floods, amplifying economic costs worldwide.

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UN climate chief Simon Stiell stressed that protecting lives, businesses and economies from extreme heat requires phase-out of fossil fuels, noting that clean-energy technologies cost less and deploy faster than coal or gas. Dr Leon Hermanson, lead author of WMO report, said the El Niño expected in late 2026 makes 2027 likely to become the next record-breaking year.

The Guardian

• “The latest heatwave in Europe is a brutal reminder of the spiralling impacts of the climate crisis, both human and economic. Many other parts of the world are also getting hit hard, such as India and other parts of Asia.” — Simon Stiell, UN Climate Chief

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• “Protecting human lives, businesses and economies from extreme heat and the many other soaring costs of climate change is core business for every nation, and it starts with kicking the fossil fuel addiction much faster,” — Simon Stiell, UN Climate Chief

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• “There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year.” — Dr Leon Hermanson, Lead Author, WMO Report

The Guardian

The WMO will track the El Niño expected in 2026; NOAA forecasts a 96 % chance of its occurrence between December 2026 and February 2027. The agency notes Arctic winters over the next five years are projected 2.8 °C above recent averages and precipitation likely to shift, bringing wetter conditions to northern Europe, the Sahel, Alaska and Siberia and drier conditions to the Amazon. These projections underscore the need for ongoing monitoring as the record-breaking year of 2027 approaches.

The Guardian