Full Breakdown
Graham Platner Leads Susan Collins by Nine Points in Latest Maine Senate Poll
5/28/2026, 10:15:37 PM
Core Findings: Platner’s Lead in the UNH Pine Tree State Survey
A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll conducted May 21-25 with 1,397 likely voters shows Democratic oyster-farmer Graham Platner ahead of five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins 51%-42% in a hypothetical general-election matchup. Undecided voters comprise 6% and 2% favor another candidate. The poll’s margin of error is ±2.6 percentage points.
Background & Context
Collins has represented Maine in the Senate since 1997, winning re-election in 2020 against Democrat Sara Gideon by nine points despite the state’s recent Democratic tilt in presidential contests. Governor Janet Mills withdrew from the Senate race in late April, leaving Platner as the presumptive Democratic nominee, though Mills remains on the June 9 primary ballot and still draws about 10% of Democratic primary support. Maine’s Senate seat is a focal point in Democrats’ effort to flip the narrowly Republican-controlled Senate (53-47).
Key Figures & Groups
- Graham Platner – Democratic challenger, endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and other progressive leaders.
- Susan Collins – Incumbent Republican, described as a moderate who has broken with GOP leadership on several issues.
- Super-PAC supporting Collins – Has spent millions on negative ads highlighting Platner’s past Reddit posts and a tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol.
- Democratic endorsements – Include Sen. Ruben Gallego and other progressive figures; Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-MA) declined to endorse Platner over the tattoo controversy.
Data & Statistics
- UNH poll: Platner 51%, Collins 42%, undecided 6%, other 2% (±2.6 pts).
- Independent voters split 47% for Collins, 44% for Platner.
- Prior UNH polls (Feb.) showed Platner 49% vs. Collins 38%; other recent surveys (Pan Atlantic, Maine People’s Resource Center, Emerson College) reported leads ranging from 7 to 9 points for Platner.
- Favorability: 73% of likely Democrats view Platner positively; 65% of Republicans view Collins favorably.
Why It Matters / Impact
If Platner wins the November 3 general election, Democrats would gain a seat needed to reach the four-seat net gain required to seize Senate control. The race also tests the durability of Collins’ moderate brand in a state that has voted Democratic in recent presidential elections.
Official Statements & Responses
Platner told supporters at a rally that he had ranked former Senate President Troy Jackson first on his ballot during Maine’s ranked-choice primary, underscoring his commitment to progressive allies. Collins’ campaign has not issued a direct response to the poll, but a University of New Hampshire poll note indicates her favorability rating was “underwater” by 18 points earlier in the month.
Criticism & Opposition
Platner faces criticism for a tattoo that resembles a Nazi insignia and for past Reddit comments on sexual assault and alcohol. Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-MA) labeled the tattoo “personally disqualifying” and said he would vote for another Democratic candidate. Collins has been criticized for limited personal campaigning, with observers noting that most advertising for her has been generated by outside groups.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
While the UNH poll shows Collins leading independents 47%-44%, the Pan Atlantic Research poll gave Platner a 48%-35% advantage among unaffiliated voters. The UNH survey’s online methodology and the limited sample size (1,397) leave uncertainty about how well the results reflect the broader electorate.
Verbatim Quotes
- “As I said months ago, I find Platner’s Nazi tattoo and his commentary about it personally disqualifying,” — Jake Auchincloss, U.S. Representative (D-MA)
- “have processed that [Platner is] the Bad Posts and Tat guy already,” — Dave Weigel, Semafor politics reporter
- “after the GOP threw their best... oppo at Platner.” — Ryan Grim, Drop Site News co-founder
- “Mainers are tired of outsiders trying to tell them who should run for office here in Maine,” — Jordan Wood, candidate for Maine’s 2nd Congressional District
- “This poll shows what we’re seeing every day as we talk to voters. They want a fighter who will stand up to Donald Trump and the corrupt system in Washington, D.C., and who will fight for real results to improve their lives.” — Jordan Wood, candidate for Maine’s 2nd Congressional District
What’s Next
The June 9 primary will determine the official Democratic nominee, with Platner already holding a commanding lead among Democratic primary voters. The general election on November 3 will decide whether the seat flips, influencing the balance of power in the U.S. Senate.
