Full Breakdown
2028 Presidential Primary Landscape Shaped by New Emerson College Poll
5/28/2026, 10:17:21 PM
Poll Snapshot
An Emerson College poll of 1,000 likely voters (432 Democratic) conducted May 24-25 shows former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg leading the Democratic primary with 18 % support, followed by Gov. Gavin Newsom (16 %) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (11 %). On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance has 36 % and Secretary of State Marco Rubio 35 %. Undecided voters are 18 % of Democrats and 15 % of Republicans. The poll’s credibility interval is three points overall and 4.7 points for the Democratic subsample.
Background & Context
Speculation about the 2028 field grew after the 2024 elections. Buttigieg hinted at a possible run at a National Action Network event, while Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer fielded questions about a presidential bid before announcing she will not run. Earlier Emerson surveys placed Vance ahead of Rubio; the latest numbers show a tightening Republican contest.
Key Potential Contenders
- Pete Buttigieg – former Transportation Secretary and 2020 Democratic nominee.
- Gavin Newsom – Calif. governor, second in Democratic poll.
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez – New York congresswoman, 11 % support.
- JD Vance – Vice President, Republican front-runner with 36 %.
- Marco Rubio – Sec. of State, close second with 35 %.
- Gretchen Whitmer – Michigan governor, ruled out a 2028 run.
Official Statements & Responses
Whitmer told WJBK-TV at Mackinac Policy Conference that she will not join the expected 2028 presidential field and emphasized she will take time before any next move, noting advice from advisors such as Buttigieg. When asked about a potential Harlem lunch with Al Sharpton, Buttigieg said he would attend if invited, without confirming any candidacy plans.
Criticism & Opposition
Analysts note the poll’s limited sample size and early-voter volatility. Observers warn that former President Donald Trump’s endorsement could reshape the Vance-Rubio tie, a factor the survey does not capture.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The poll shows Vance’s support falling from 52 % in February to 36 % and Rubio’s rising from 20 % to 35 %. Newsom’s share fell from 25 % high to 16 %. No candidate has filed paperwork, leaving the field speculative.
Verbatim Quotes
- “There will be a robust group of people running for president. I will not be one of them in 2028, I can tell you that,” — Gretchen Whitmer, Governor of Michigan
- “You save me a seat, I’ll be there,” — Pete Buttigieg, Former Transportation Secretary
- “It looks like a two-horse race when before, Vance really was running away with it,” — Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling
- “As we’ve seen so often in these primaries in 2026, Trump is kind of the decider in the Republican Party, and I don’t see that going anywhere anytime soon,” — Kirk Bado, Editor, National Journal’s Hotline
What’s Next
Whitmer will speak later Thursday at the Mackinac Policy Conference. Both parties plan additional polling this summer, and potential candidates are expected to file exploratory committees in the coming months.
