Full Breakdown
NHL Offseason Trade Market Heats Up: Stars, Picks, and Uncertain Futures
5/28/2026, 10:52:30 PM
Core Trade Landscape: Stars and Picks in Play
The 2025-26 offseason is dominated by speculation around marquee contracts and high-draft assets. Edmonton’s Connor McDavid (contract through 2027-28, $12.5 M cap hit) and Toronto’s Auston Matthews (through 2028, $13.25 M cap hit) dominate the conversation, while the Maple Leafs’ No. 1 overall pick remains a potential bargaining chip. St. Louis’ Robert Thomas (26, $8.125 M cap hit through 2030-31) and New Jersey’s Simon Nemec (22, former No. 2 overall pick) are identified as prime trade targets for contending clubs.
Recent Context: Playoff Disappointments and Management Changes
Both the Oilers and Leafs missed deep playoff runs, prompting front-office overhauls. Toronto has hired former player Mats Sundin and ex-GM John Chayka to reshape the roster, while Edmonton continues its search for a head coach. The Buffalo Sabres, after a 14-year playoff drought, now field a core of Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin but lack elite depth, driving GM Jarmo Kekalainen to explore “win-now” deals.
Key Players and Teams: McDavid, Matthews, Thomas, Nemec, Sabres Assets
- McDavid & Matthews: Both are under long-term deals but have not ruled out movement.
- Robert Thomas: Ranked 5th in assists per 60 min, 10th in points per 60 min among forwards with >=1,000 min (last three seasons).
- Simon Nemec: 22-year-old right-shot defenseman, former No. 2 overall pick, attracting interest from San Jose, Boston, and Anaheim.
- Buffalo’s Trade Chips: Defenseman Bowen Byram (24), 2025 first-round pick Radim Mrtka (No. 9 overall), forward Noah Ostlund (27 points in 60 games as a rookie), forward Ryan McLeod (5-year, $5 M cap hit), and the 2026 first-round pick.
Numbers That Matter: Contracts, Caps, and Performance Metrics
- McDavid: $12.5 M cap hit, two seasons remaining.
- Matthews: $13.25 M cap hit, two seasons remaining.
- Thomas: $8.125 M cap hit, contract through 2030-31.
- Thomas’ recent three first-round picks in the 2026 class increase his trade value.
- Sabres’ 2026 first-round pick could be used for a high-risk prospect or as a trade asset.
Official Statements & Team Positions
The Oilers and Leafs have indicated that coaching vacancies influence star players’ decisions. Toronto’s front office has met with Matthews and his agent, reporting a positive discussion, while Chayka signaled openness to offers for the No. 1 pick. Buffalo’s Kekalainen has publicly expressed interest in extending Byram, though no deal is confirmed. The Devils have not commented on Nemec’s availability, but trade interest is noted by multiple clubs.
Criticism & Skepticism
Analysts caution that the Flyers should retain Matvei Michkov despite a recent performance dip, arguing that only a proven No. 1 center would justify his loss. The McDavid-MacKinnon swap is deemed “unlikely” due to contract length disparities and player preferences. Buffalo’s potential loss of prospect Radim Mrtka is flagged as a long-term risk.
Conflicting Reports & Uncertainties
Sources differ on the certainty of McDavid’s and Matthews’ stay; while they “are most likely staying,” neither can “commit 100 percent.” The exact price required for Thomas remains speculative, with no concrete package identified.
Verbatim Quotes
- “are most likely staying put for at least another season,” — Pierre LeBrun, *The Athletic*
- “neither can yet commit 100 percent to that.” — Pierre LeBrun, *The Athletic*
- “went well by all accounts,” — Pierre LeBrun, *The Athletic*
- “isn't hanging up the phone,” — Pierre LeBrun, *The Athletic*
What’s Next: Coaching Hires, Free Agency, and the 2026 Draft
Both Edmonton and Toronto are expected to announce new head coaches before the summer trade deadline. Free-agency decisions on Byram, Thomas, and other high-cap players will shape the market. The 2026 NHL Draft, featuring Toronto’s No. 1 pick and Buffalo’s late first-round selection, will be a focal point for teams seeking to balance immediate upgrades with future assets.
