U.S. Uninsured Rate Holds at 8% in 2025 Amid Policy Shifts

CDC's (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) NHIS (National Health Interview Survey) preliminary estimate shows 8% of the U.S. population uninsured in 2025, unchanged from 2024. The number of uninsured grew by about 800,000, including 300,000 children. Among adults ages 18-64, 11.6% were uninsured, 21% had public coverage (Medicaid, state-sponsored, military) and 69% had private coverage. The uninsured rate remains lower than in 2019.

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Uninsured rates rose from 12% in 1980 to over 18% in 2010, fell after ACA expansion to near 10% by 2016, rose to 11-12% during President Donald Trump’s first term, fell again during COVID-19 to below 9% in 2023. Recent changes include massive Medicaid reforms passed into law last year and expiration of ACA-enhanced premium tax credits in 2025, which are projected to affect enrollment.

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Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates Medicaid reforms could add 10 million uninsured over a decade. CBO also projects about 14 million more uninsured by 2034 due to Medicaid and exchange eligibility changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act tax-cut law and expiration of enhanced subsidies. Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) projects 5 million fewer marketplace enrollees in 2026 compared with 2025.

The Hill

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released the first complete 2025 data via NHIS. Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) analysis notes the increase in uninsured under age 64 and links it to Medicaid coverage decline. President Donald Trump’s administration has said the enrollment declines reflect a reduction in fraudulent and ineligible enrollees and highlights efforts to expand low-premium catastrophic plans and lower drug prices.

Boston Globe

Health policy analysts warn that Medicaid cuts risk leaving low-income adults and children without coverage. The rise of 300,000 uninsured children is highlighted as a concern. Observers also note that a possible increase in insured Hispanic Americans may be driven by immigration enforcement that reduces the number of uninsured individuals in the country.

Boston Globe

The CDC survey aligns closely with Census Bureau estimates, but the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) for 2025 has not yet been released, limiting direct comparison. Different tracking programs produce varying numbers due to timing and question wording. The lack of final ACS data creates uncertainty about the precise uninsured count.

Boston Globe

• “the official scorekeeper,” — David Howard, Emory University health policy and management professor

Boston Globe

The U.S. Census Bureau is expected to publish its 2025 American Community Survey (ACS) later this year, providing a benchmark for uninsured estimates. Ongoing monitoring of Medicaid reforms and marketplace enrollment will inform projections for 2026 and beyond. Congressional Budget Office (CBO)’s long-term forecast of 14 million additional uninsured by 2034 underscores the potential impact of current policy changes.

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