Makerfield By-Election: A Pivotal Contest for Labour and the Populist Right

On 18 June 2026 the Greater Manchester constituency of Makerfield will elect a new MP after Labour MP Josh Simons resigned to let Mayor Andy Burnham stand. The race pits Burnham (Labour) against Robert Kenyon (Reform UK) with Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain also on the ballot. The outcome could decide whether Burnham challenges Prime Minister Keir Starmer for Labour’s leadership and whether Reform UK can break the Red-Wall.

Makerfield Could Decide Britain’s Next PM — And Transform the Populist RightAl Jazeera (website)Makerfield by-election: Burnham premium translates to small lead over Reform in first published by-election constituency pollBBC NewsThe IndependentWimbledon TimesBurnham edges Reform in Makerfield by-election pollReform UK Vetting Under Fire Ahead of Makerfield By-ElectionReform candidate sexism row deepens as more ‘degrading’ posts resurface: ‘Women can’t ref, drive or give direction’:

Makerfield, a Labour seat since 1983, gave a 5,000-vote majority in 2024 but voted 65 % to leave the EU and swung to Reform UK in the May 2024 local elections. Burnham, Greater Manchester mayor, is known as “the King of the North”. Kenyon, a plumber and councilor, finished second in 2024 with 31.8 % of the vote. Lowe’s Restore Britain, a far-right splinter, polls around 7 %.

Makerfield Could Decide Britain’s Next PM — And Transform the Populist Right

Survation’s 504-person phone poll (18-22 May) gave Burnham 43 % and Kenyon 40 % when named; Reform UK led Labour by 11 % on a generic ballot. Betting odds now show Labour at 1/3, Reform UK at 5/2 and Restore at 8/1. Burnham’s win would give him a platform to challenge Starmer; a Reform victory would be its first direct defeat of Labour in a Red-Wall seat, with Restore risking a vote split.

Makerfield Could Decide Britain’s Next PM — And Transform the Populist Right

Reform UK says Kenyon’s remarks pre-date his political career and backs him as an “excellent local candidate”. Labour chair Anna Turley calls the comments “degrading” and urges voters to choose Burnham. Defence minister Luke Pollard calls the posts “promoting Kremlin talking points”.

The London Economic

Local activists and the Greens condemn Kenyon’s misogynistic, anti-vaccination and pro-Russia posts as “locker-room banter” that normalises abuse. Reform’s defence of “straight-talk” has been criticised as evidence of weak vetting.

The London Economic

Kenyon’s Brexit stance is disputed: some posts suggest he did not vote Leave, while Reform UK says he is a “proud Brexiteer”. His 2014 comment supporting Russia’s annexation of Crimea is framed by the party as opinion but condemned by officials as “Kremlin talking points”.

The London Economic

• “This is exactly the sort of place that Reform can expect to do well,” — Jon Tonge, Professor of Politics, University of Liverpool

BBC News

• “Robert Kenyon’s comments on women are degrading and an insult to the women and girls who live and work in Makerfield.” — Anna Turley, Labour Chair

Reform candidate sexism row deepens as more ‘degrading’ posts resurface: ‘Women can’t ref, drive or give direction’:

• “split the right of British politics as best he can.” — Nigel Farage, Reform UK leader

Politico Europe

• “I’m sexist, sorry but I am.” — Robert Kenyon, online post

Reform candidate sexism row deepens as more ‘degrading’ posts resurface: ‘Women can’t ref, drive or give direction’:

Burnham’s campaign stresses regional renewal while Reform UK mobilises anti-establishment voters. The 18 June ballot will decide whether Makerfield becomes a stepping-stone for a new prime minister or a breakthrough for the populist right.

Makerfield Could Decide Britain’s Next PM — And Transform the Populist Right