High Gas Prices, Swing Voters, and the Push for a Federal Tax Holiday

The U.S. war against Iran, launched Feb. 28, 2024, has lifted gasoline by about 50%, raising the national average to $4.46-$4.50 per gallon (AAA). The federal gas tax remains at 18.4 cents—unchanged since 1993—creating a $17 billion shortfall for the Highway Trust Fund.

NBC News

In Pennsylvania, voter Colleen pays $4.37 per gallon and says, “I guess their pockets are deeper than mine,” forcing cuts. In Philadelphia, John, a former Democrat now backing Trump, reports $4.25 per gallon and links fuel costs to grocery bills. Nevada’s Lee, who switched from Biden to Trump, calls the war “needed” yet blames Trump for the price surge. Stories show gasoline reshaping budgets and nudging voters toward GOP.

NPR

Doug Burgum, Interior Secretary, praised Trump’s “energy dominance” as an opportunity for affordability. Trump told reporters that “those prices are going to come down, they're going to come down fast” and will fall below levels. Penn Wharton’s Kent Smetters said a gas-tax cut would benefit consumers, while LendingTree analyst Rob Bhatt warned cutting tax revenue risks worsening road conditions.

NPR

An NPR/PBS poll finds 60% of respondents blame President Trump for price rise, while swing voter Lee cites Democratic policies and the Biden administration’s green-energy agenda. Analysts warn a tax holiday would save at most 13.2-16 cents per gallon, with much of cut likely captured by refiners. Critics note tax pause could spur demand and tighten supplies.

NPR

Conflicting Reports & Gaps: The NPR/PBS poll blames President Trump for price hikes, while swing voter Lee cites Democratic policies and the Biden administration’s green-energy agenda. No clear consensus.

NPR

Eighty-one percent of voters say high gas prices strain household budgets, making fuel costs a pivotal issue in swing states. The NPR Swing Shift project shows price pressure is prompting some voters who previously backed Democrats to shift toward Trump, potentially influencing the 2024 and 2026 congressional races. Simultaneously, the federal gas-tax shortfall threatens road maintenance, adding another voter concern.

NPR

Congress may consider a tax holiday before the November elections, though passage is uncertain. States such as Georgia and Kentucky have already paused their taxes, providing short-term relief but reducing road-repair funding. Lawmakers are also debating mileage-based user fees, EV registration charges, and congestion pricing as longer-term solutions to the declining gas-tax revenue.

NPR

• “I guess their pockets are deeper than mine,” — Colleen, swing voter, Pennsylvania

NPR

• “ "Those prices are going to come down, they're going to come down fast.” — Donald Trump, President

People Magazine

• “What we generally think is that over long periods of time, most of the tax cut would go to consumers,” — Kent Smetters, Penn Wharton Budget Model faculty director

NPR

• “Anytime you take away a source of funding for highway construction and maintenance, then you're running the risk of the roads getting worse and not better,” — Rob Bhatt, LendingTree insurance analyst

NPR