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Burnham Leads Labour in Makerfield, Still Behind Reform

5/29/2026

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Summary

Story summary

Bookmakers cut Labour’s odds in the Makerfield by-election, giving Andy Burnham a 71% chance, up eleven points.
A BMG poll shows Burnham-led Labour Party would trail Reform UK despite a boost to Starmer’s leadership.
Harriet Harman warned a Burnham premiership could trigger a snap general election, adding instability.
John Curtice said the Restore Party, polling seven percent in Ashton, could split Reform’s base and narrow the contest.

History

Historical Context

Britain’s 6 May 2010 general election produced the first hung parliament since 1974, with the Conservatives and Labour each falling short and 35 % of votes going to other parties, prompting a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition. That fragmentation echoes today’s Makerfield by-election, where Labour’s Andy Burnham leads amid votes siphoned by Reform UK and the new Restore Party.

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Story summary

Bookmakers cut Labour’s odds in the Makerfield by-election, giving Andy Burnham a 71% chance, up eleven points.
A BMG poll shows Burnham-led Labour Party would trail Reform UK despite a boost to Starmer’s leadership.
Harriet Harman warned a Burnham premiership could trigger a snap general election, adding instability.
John Curtice said the Restore Party, polling seven percent in Ashton, could split Reform’s base and narrow the contest.

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