Exxon Mobil Warns of Record-Low Global Oil Inventories Amid Middle East Supply Disruptions

At a Bernstein conference in New York, Exxon Mobil senior vice president Neil Chapman said stocks of crude, gasoline, diesel and jet fuel have “run down” to “unheard of inventory levels.” He warned that if inventories hit “really, really low levels” within two to three weeks, “price shoot up” is likely, with physical Brent cargoes climbing to $150-$160 per barrel.

CNBC TV18Exxon Warns Oil Inventories Are Near Crisis Levels as Emerging Markets Dump US TreasuriesCNBCClean Technica

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, an oil transit route, has removed a billion barrels from the market, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA warned inventories are being depleted at a record pace and that members agreed in March to release 400 million barrels to offset the disruption.

CNBC

Oil inventories have fallen sharply. Brent futures for July delivery closed under $94 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded near $88, showing modest prices despite tightening physical markets. Exxon projects physical Brent at $150-$160 per barrel if inventories hit all-time lows. Oil-importing emerging markets sold about $86 billion of U.S. Treasury securities in March, the largest monthly decline since 2011.

Exxon Warns Oil Inventories Are Near Crisis Levels as Emerging Markets Dump US Treasuries

Analysts note a growing disconnect: futures stay below $95 per barrel, yet inventory data suggest limited buffer for outages or refinery disruptions during the summer driving season, highlighting a “tightening underneath the surface” of the market.

Exxon Warns Oil Inventories Are Near Crisis Levels as Emerging Markets Dump US Treasuries

Exxon reiterated that dwindling inventories could trigger rapid price spikes and that demand destruction would eventually restore balance. The IEA emphasized unprecedented scale of the Hormuz closure and the need for the 400-million-barrel release to sustain supply.

CNBC

Energy analysts say higher oil prices raise dollar demand and widen trade deficits for import-dependent economies, forcing governments to tap reserves or cut foreign holdings. The disparity between Exxon’s $150-$160 physical price forecast and sub-$95 futures highlights uncertainty about when inventories will hit “record low” levels, a timeline Chapman estimates at two to three weeks.

Exxon Warns Oil Inventories Are Near Crisis Levels as Emerging Markets Dump US Treasuries

• “You can debate whether that's going to hit, those really low levels, in two weeks or three weeks. Once you get to that point, then you'll see price shoot up.” — Neil Chapman, Senior Vice President, Exxon Mobil

CNBC

• “When the price gets to a certain level, demand destruction brings it back into balance,” — Neil Chapman, Senior Vice President, Exxon Mobil

CNBC

• “Iran's closure of the strait has cost the market more than a billion barrels so far, the largest oil supply disruption in history, according to the International Energy Agency.” — International Energy Agency

CNBC

• “The IEA warned earlier this month that inventories are being depleted at a record pace.” — International Energy Agency

CNBC

A 60-day extension of the U.S.–Iran ceasefire provides relief to shipping, but renewed tension could accelerate inventory drawdowns and reignite price spikes. Ongoing monitoring of inventories and geopolitical developments will be key to near-term forecasts.

CNBC