Trump’s State-Level Approval Slips Across the Nation in Second Term

A rolling online poll conducted by Civiqs between 20 January 2025 and 26 May 2026 shows that President Donald Trump’s net approval—calculated as “approve” minus “disapprove”—has fallen in every state since the start of his second term. The most pronounced drops occur in traditionally Republican states and key battlegrounds. In Wyoming, the net advantage fell from +47 to +22, a 25-point decline. In Florida, the margin shifted from +9 to –12, turning a modest positive rating into a clear negative. Similar reversals are recorded in Ohio (+8 to –11) and Nevada (0 to –20).

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The Civiqs tracker surveys more than 107,000 registered voters, using continuous surveying and statistical modeling to produce smoothed estimates rather than single-point snapshots. Net approval figures for each state were compared with the poll’s first-day-in-office estimates (January 20 2025) to assess change over time.

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• Deep-Red States: States such as Oklahoma, Idaho, Tennessee and Montana remain positive but each lost roughly 18-20 points. Wyoming, the most pro-Trump state, saw its net margin cut by more than half.

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• Battlegrounds: Florida, Ohio and Nevada moved from modest positive or neutral positions to net disapproval, indicating a potential impact on future electoral competitiveness. Nebraska also slipped from +18 to –4.

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• Deep-Blue States: California, New York and Massachusetts recorded deeper negative net approval, though the absolute change was smaller because initial margins were already strongly negative.

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Across the board, the pattern reflects simultaneous declines in approval (average drop of 10-14 points) and rises in disapproval (average increase of 8-11 points), amplifying net losses.

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The uniform contraction of Trump’s support narrows the margins that previously defined safe Republican states and competitive swing states. While the partisan geography of the United States remains recognizable, the margins have shifted downward, with several battleground states moving from net positive to net negative ratings.

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The White House has dismissed the polling trend, asserting that the President’s 2024 election victory—nearly 80 million votes—constitutes the definitive measure of public endorsement. Spokesperson Davis Ingle emphasized that the election result, rather than interim polls, reflects the administration’s mandate.

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• “What the White House Says The White House has dismissed the significance of recent polling, instead pointing to Trump’s 2024 election victory as the clearest measure of public support.” — Davis Ingle, White House Spokesperson

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• “Wyoming: +47 -> +22 (down 25 points) Kentucky: +23 -> 0 (down 23 points) Nebraska: +18 -> -4 (down 22 points) Alaska: +9 -> -12 (down 21 points) Florida: +9 -> -12 (down 21 points) Oklahoma: +31 -> +10 (down 21 points) Nevada: 0 -> -20 (down 20 points) Maine: -12 -> -31 (down 19 points) Ohio: +8 -> -11 (down 19 points) Utah: +20 -> +1 (down 19 points) Just outside the top tier, Idaho, Tennessee and Montana also fall by 19 points, while Kansas and West Virginia are down 18 points.” — Civiqs poll data

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