Racial Resentment Drives Divergent Evangelical Turnout in the 2020 Election

A new analysis of the 2020 Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey finds that conservative racial attitudes (racial resentment) raise voter turnout for white, Asian American, and Latino evangelicals, but depress turnout for Black evangelicals. The effect appears only within the evangelical sub-sample; the same attitudes have little impact among non-evangelicals.

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Political scientist Nathan K. Chan of Loyola Marymount University used the 2020 Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey, which oversamples minority voters and offers questionnaires in six languages. Respondents reported whether they identified as evangelical, fundamentalist, or mainline Christian and whether they voted in the November 2020 election. The data were controlled for age, income, education, gender, nativity, and baseline political interest.

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• White evangelicals with the highest racial resentment were about 22 percentage points more likely to vote than those with the lowest resentment.

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• Latino evangelicals at the top of the resentment scale were roughly 20 percentage points more likely to turn out.

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• Black evangelicals holding strong racial resentment were about 23 percentage points less likely to vote than their less resentful peers.

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• Among non-evangelicals, racial resentment showed little association with turnout for any racial group.

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• Preliminary regression suggests frequent church attendance may reduce turnout among Latino evangelicals.

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The results illustrate how a single psychological trait can produce opposite electoral behaviors when intersecting with race and religious identity. Recognizing these layered influences can refine models of voter mobilization and guide campaign outreach to evangelical constituencies that differ by race.

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The study relies on self-reported religious affiliation, which may conflate theological belief with cultural or political labeling. Variation in how respondents interpret “evangelical” could bias the observed patterns. Critics note the absence of denomination-level classification, limiting insight into intra-evangelical differences. The cross-sectional design also precludes causal claims about whether resentment drives turnout or vice versa.

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• “A recent study published in The Journal of Race, Ethnicity, and Politics found that holding conservative racial attitudes is related to higher voter turnout among white, Asian American, and Latino evangelicals, while the exact same attitudes are linked to lower turnout among Black evangelicals.” — PsyPost summary

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• “The statistical models showed that white evangelicals holding the absolute highest levels of racial animus were roughly 22 percentage points more likely to vote than those holding the lowest levels.” — PsyPost summary

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• “Black evangelicals holding the most racially conservative views were roughly 23 percentage points less likely to vote than Black evangelicals with the most racially liberal views.” — PsyPost summary

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• “The study, “Racial Attitudes, Voter Turnout, and the Politics of Evangelicals Across the Racial Divide,” was authored by Nathan K.” — PsyPost summary

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Suggested extensions include classifying participants by specific church denomination, testing attendance frequency across groups, and employing longitudinal designs to track attitude-turnout dynamics over multiple election cycles.

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