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Iran Controls Hormuz, Oil Flow at 60-70%; Bab el-Mandeb Slashed

5/31/2026

38 6 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz will keep oil traffic at 60-70% of pre-war levels.
Market pricing now shows a 6.5% chance of normal traffic by June 15, down from 10%.
Former Biden energy adviser Amos Hochstein said Iran will control the strait for the foreseeable future.
Houthi attacks cut Bab el-Mandeb traffic from 75 ships on Nov 19 2023 to 31 vessels by Jan 30 2024.

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Story summary

Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz will keep oil traffic at 60-70% of pre-war levels.
Market pricing now shows a 6.5% chance of normal traffic by June 15, down from 10%.
Former Biden energy adviser Amos Hochstein said Iran will control the strait for the foreseeable future.
Houthi attacks cut Bab el-Mandeb traffic from 75 ships on Nov 19 2023 to 31 vessels by Jan 30 2024.