Full Breakdown
California Governor Race: Polls Show Becerra and Hilton Leading as Primary Nears
5/31/2026, 4:40:32 AM
Core Findings: Latest Polls Position Becerra and Hilton at the Top
Three recent surveys of likely California voters place former U.S. Health and Human Services secretary Xavier Becerra in first place and former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton in second. The Emerson College poll (May 27-28) gave Becerra 28 % and Hilton 21 % (Steyer 22 %); the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll reported Becerra 23 % and Hilton 20 % (Steyer 15 %); and the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll showed Becerra 25 % and Hilton 21 % (Steyer 19 %). All three polls have a margin of error of roughly ±3 %. Undecided voters range from 4 % to 7 % across the surveys.
Background & Context: Open “Jungle” Primary System
California’s top-two primary allows the two candidates with the most votes—regardless of party—to advance to the November runoff. Early in the campaign, analysts warned that a split Democratic field could enable two Republicans, such as Hilton and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco, to reach the runoff. The latest polling suggests that scenario has become unlikely.
Key Figures: Becerra, Hilton, and Steyer
- Xavier Becerra – Former California attorney general and HHS secretary under President Joe Biden; positioned as the Democratic front-runner.
- Steve Hilton – Former Fox News host and businessman; the leading Republican candidate, boosted by a 2024 endorsement from former President Donald Trump.
- Tom Steyer – Billionaire former hedge-fund manager and progressive activist; consistently polls in third place.
Data & Statistics: Comparative Poll Numbers
| Survey | Becerra | Hilton | Steyer | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College (May 27-28) | 28 % | 21 % | 22 % | 5 % |
| PPIC (early May) | 23 % | 20 % | 15 % | 4 % |
| UC Berkeley (May 19-24) | 25 % | 21 % | 19 % | 7 % |
| Vote-by-mail ballots cast (as of early June) | — | — | — | >3 million ballots |
Official Statements & Responses
Becerra’s campaign spokesperson Jonathan Underland said the candidate “has built real momentum—strong poll numbers backed by working Californians who are energized and ready.” PPIC survey director Mark Baldassare noted the poll “showed with some clarity that we have two candidates with more than 20 % of the vote—one a Democrat, one a Republican,” and added that “there’s always the possibility that we end up with two Democrats, but it’s much more likely at this point that we have a Democrat and a Republican.”
Criticism & Opposition
Tom Steyer’s campaign issued a written statement disputing the PPIC findings, arguing the survey “missed recent movement toward the liberal billionaire.” Democratic strategist Paul Mitchell warned that many Democratic voters are “holding onto the ballot because they have seen this kind of topsy-turvy governor’s race,” suggesting a risk of low turnout among the party’s base.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls differ on the exact share of support for each candidate (e.g., Becerra’s support ranges from 23 % to 28 %). The Emerson poll shows a tighter race between Steyer and Hilton among undecided voters (both 23 %), while the PPIC and UC Berkeley surveys place Steyer further behind. No poll provides final ballot-return data, leaving the impact of the >3 million mailed ballots uncertain.
Verbatim Quotes
- “My joke is: Call your Democratic parents and tell them to turn in their ballot,” Paul Mitchell said. “They are holding onto the ballot because they have seen this kind of topsy-turvy governor’s race. They’re waiting to make sure they’re making the right choice.” — Paul Mitchell, Democratic strategist
- “Becerra has built real momentum — strong poll numbers backed by working Californians who are energized and ready.” — Jonathan Underland, Becerra campaign spokesperson
- “This is the first poll that we’ve done that showed with some clarity that we have two candidates with more than 20% of the vote — one a Democrat, one a Republican,” — Mark Baldassare, PPIC survey director
- “There’s always the possibility that we end up with two Democrats [in the November runoff], but it’s much more likely at this point that we have a Democrat and a Republican.” — Mark Baldassare
- “Swalwell’s exit and the circumstances surrounding it led to support for Becerra — who has experience in Sacramento, unlike really any other of the major candidates, and spoke to Democrats about something that really mattered to them, which was that he had experience taking on Donald Trump,” — Mark Baldassare
Why It Matters: Implications of a Potential Becerra-Hilton Runoff
If the top-two primary yields a Becerra-Hilton runoff, California could see a partisan contest that shapes policy on climate, housing, and health care at the nation’s most populous state. The outcome also signals voter alignment ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, where California’s congressional delegation will be contested.
What’s Next: Upcoming Primary and Runoff Timeline
The primary election is scheduled for June 4, 2026. The two candidates receiving the most votes will advance to the November runoff. Ballot-by-mail returns continue to be counted, and additional polling is expected in the weeks leading up to the primary.
