Full Breakdown
Oklahoma GOP Gubernatorial Race Tightens as Poll Shows Four-Way Dead Heat
6/1/2026, 12:31:51 AM
Four-Way Tie in GOP Gubernatorial Poll
A poll of 457 Oklahoma Republican voters, commissioned by the media outlet NonDoc, data-analytics platform Centiment, and University of Oklahoma political science professor Allyson Shortle, finds Mike Mazzei (22.1%), Gentner Drummond (21.7%), Chip Keating (21.4%) and Charles McCall (18.4%) virtually tied for the June 16 primary. Respondents were asked which candidate they would choose if the election were held today.
Key Voter Issues
When asked to name their top three issues, 57% cited inflation and cost of living, 41% chose economy and infrastructure, and 32% highlighted immigration and border security. Education (29%), public safety (21%), taxes (21%) and healthcare (20%) also ranked among the most-cited concerns.
Official Statements & Responses
Incumbent Governor Kevin Stitt told News 9 he will “let Oklahomans choose” and urged voters to pick “a businessman, not a politician” who supports limited government and lower taxes. He said he may become involved if a runoff is required but has not endorsed any candidate.
Criticism & Opposition
Candidates and observers argue the poll underrepresents rural voters and omits an “undecided” response, limiting its accuracy. Political analyst Scott Mitchell called the results “a snapshot in history” and warned that “Oklahomans are tough to poll,” noting past polls missed outcomes such as the 2018 primary upset of Mick Cornett.
Why It Matters
With four candidates separated by less than four points, a runoff cannot be ruled out, prompting campaigns to sharpen their messages. The poll shows inflation and cost of living are top voter concerns, but the leading candidates have focused on immigration and border security, indicating a possible gap between voter priorities and campaign emphasis. The relatively low salience of conservative-value issues suggests evolving voter preferences.
Verbatim Quotes
- “There’s no consolidation going on. It’s fragmenting, and it’s about who’s going to get in the runoff,” — Scott Mitchell, political analyst, News 9/News on 6
- “I have confidence that Oklahomans will get it right, and we’ll elect a really good governor that thinks about limited government, lower taxes.” — Governor Kevin Stitt
- “I’m not sure the electorate has really decided what’s most important.” — Scott Mitchell, political analyst
- “It’s basically a few days old. It’s a snapshot in history. It’s all about what’s going to be moving forward, but it does give us some insight as to what’s happening regardless,” — Scott Mitchell, political analyst
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The poll surveyed only self-identified Republicans, excluded likely-voter weighting and omitted an “undecided” response, raising questions about its predictive reliability, particularly in rural precincts.
What’s Next
Oklahoma’s primary is set for June 16. If no candidate exceeds 50%, a runoff will be held. Governor Stitt has said any endorsement would likely come after the primary or in a runoff scenario.
