Full Breakdown
Global Fertilizer Crisis Deepens as Iran War Disrupts Supply Chains
6/1/2026, 12:22:16 AM
Iran War Disrupts Global Fertilizer Supply
The U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28 triggered a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly one-third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer shipments. The shutdown halted natural-gas deliveries that power nitrogen-based fertilizer production, causing rapid price spikes. Within weeks, fertilizer costs rose sharply across markets, prompting farmers worldwide to seek alternatives.
Background: Gulf Dependence and Supply-Chain Vulnerabilities
The Gulf region supplies about 30 % of globally traded chemical fertilizer (International Food Policy Research Institute). Natural gas, the feedstock for nitrogen fertilizers, is sourced largely from the same waters. The World Bank’s fertilizer price index recorded a near-50 % increase after the conflict began, amplifying concerns about food-security and climate impacts tied to fertilizer-related greenhouse-gas emissions.
Price Surge Data
- Senegal: fertilizer prices up ? 40 % since Feb. 28; the country imports 125,000 tons annually.
- Brazil: biofertilizer sector grew 15 % (2023-2024); overall fertilizer prices up ? 50 % (source 2).
- United States: urea prices up 55 %; another nitrogen fertilizer up 33 % (Kentucky Farm Bureau testimony).
- Midwest U.S. corn growers: 45 % price spike reported; 67 % pre-booked fertilizer, yet 20 % risk higher costs (source 6).
Farmer Responses Across Continents
Senegalese farmer Abou Sow, who switched to compost eight years ago, now advises peers to use locally sourced manure. Missouri farmer Trevor Thieman removed his cattle to cut fertilizer dependence. In Telangana, India, Manohara Chari produces “jivamrita” from cow dung, urine and sugar, joining 1.7 million natural-farming households. Mexican researcher Gerardo Noriega warns subsidies for chemical inputs hinder organic adoption, while Brazilian growers increasingly produce biofertilizers from municipal waste.
Official Statements & Policy Responses
- Senegal’s agriculture minister Mabouba Diagne said the state secured enough chemical fertilizer for the current season, though farmers report shortages.
- Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a national mission to halve fertilizer use and promote natural farming.
- FTC Chairman Andrew Ferguson confirmed a civil investigative demand into fertilizer price spikes, naming CF Industries, Mosaic and Nutrien.
- USDA reported the largest input-cost increase for U.S. farmers since 2020 stems from fertilizer.
- Brazil’s Embrapa noted a 15 % growth in biofertilizer production, citing vulnerability from import dependence.
Criticism of Market Structure and Subsidies
Senegalese farmer Aliou Fall blamed President Donald Trump for the war-driven price surge. U.S. farmer Todd Kimbrell described the market as a “fertilizer cartel.” Dee Vaughn of the Texas Corn Producers Association highlighted a 45 % rise in Chapter 12 bankruptcies among farmers. Food-systems expert Susan Chomba warned that existing subsidies “incentivize the wrong sort of products,” limiting competition for organic alternatives.
Conflicting Figures and Gaps
Sources report fertilizer price increases ranging from 40 % (Senegal) to 55 % (U.S. urea) and 50 % (World Bank index). While many Midwestern growers pre-purchased inputs, a minority anticipate severe cost impacts for the upcoming fall season. Data on the exact volume of alternative fertilizers deployed remains limited, hindering precise assessment of the shift’s scale.
Verbatim Quotes
- “We can't afford to wait for a ceasefire,” — Abou Sow, Senegalese farmer
- “The clock is ticking very hard,” — Maximo Torero, chief economist, UN FAO
- “You're incentivizing the wrong sort of products,” — Susan Chomba, International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems
- “Every farmer in that room knew Chairman Ferguson was right, ignoring the crisis in the fertilizer market is no longer an option,” — Mark Mueller, President, Iowa Corn Growers Association
- “A fertilizer cartel has squeezed American agriculture to the breaking point, while driving up grocery costs for every family in this country,” — Aaron Martinka, Chair, Texas Corn Producers
- “If even a fraction of that support is given to natural farmers, more people will shift towards it.” — Manohara Chari, natural farmer, Telangana
Outlook: Investigations and Policy Shifts
The FTC’s probe continues, with potential antitrust actions pending. India’s mission aims to cut synthetic fertilizer use by 50 % within years. Senegal plans to distribute 30,000 tons of organic fertilizer, though farmers deem it insufficient. Brazil’s biofertilizer expansion and calls for increased domestic production in the U.S. and Brazil signal a broader move toward supply-chain resilience amid geopolitical shocks.
