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UK Home Prices to Drop 2% Then Surge 18.5%

6/1/2026

27 5 Full Breakdown

Summary

Savills Forecasts Rise

Savills forecasts UK house prices will fall 2% in 2026 and rise 18.5% by 2030, up from 22.2% estimate.
Savills expects 2030 growth of 25% in North East, Yorkshire and Humber, North West, 23% in Wales and Scotland, and 10.6% in London and 13.4% in South East.
Mortgage rates peak in summer 2026 and fall to 3.50% by 2030 as the Bank of England rate moves from 3.75% to 2.50%.

Summary

Bailey Holds Rates

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said the bank is not in a rush to raise rates, leaving the key rate at 3.75% in April.
Moneyfacts reported the two-year fixed mortgage rose to 5.73% on 28 May from 4.83% in early March.
Halifax data showed London house values fell 1.4% year-on-year to April, while Rightmove’s May asking-price index rose 1.2% to £378,304.

History

Historical Context

Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy on 15 September 2008 sparked a worldwide credit crunch that pushed the global economy into a recession from Q3 2008 through Q1 2009, as the IMF later recognized 2009 as the sole year of a global downturn. In response, G20 leaders met in November 2008 to coordinate stimulus and liquidity measures, shaping the policy framework that still guides today’s UK housing market debates.

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Savills Forecasts Rise

Savills forecasts UK house prices will fall 2% in 2026 and rise 18.5% by 2030, up from 22.2% estimate.
Savills expects 2030 growth of 25% in North East, Yorkshire and Humber, North West, 23% in Wales and Scotland, and 10.6% in London and 13.4% in South East.
Mortgage rates peak in summer 2026 and fall to 3.50% by 2030 as the Bank of England rate moves from 3.75% to 2.50%.

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