Full Breakdown
California Gubernatorial Primary: Becerra Leads, Steyer and Hilton Vie for Second Spot
6/2/2026, 12:58:37 AM
Core Event – June 2 Primary Under Top-Two System
California’s nonpartisan “jungle” primary on June 2 determines the two candidates who will appear on the November 3 general-election ballot, regardless of party affiliation. The race has narrowed to three front-runners: Democrat Xavier Becerra, Democrat Tom Steyer, and Republican Steve Hilton.
Background & Context – Open Seat and Poll Shifts
Incumbent Governor Gavin Newsom is term-limited, creating the first open gubernatorial contest in more than two decades. Early 2026 polls showed a fragmented Democratic field, prompting concerns that two Republicans could advance. The departure of former Rep. Eric Swalwell and the consolidation of Republican support behind Hilton after a Trump endorsement have reshaped the dynamics.
Key Figures & Groups – Becerra, Steyer, Hilton, and Others
- Xavier Becerra – Former U.S. Health and Human Services secretary and former California attorney general.
- Tom Steyer – Billionaire hedge-fund founder, climate-change activist, and 2020 Democratic presidential primary candidate.
- Steve Hilton – Former Fox News commentator, British-born political strategist, endorsed by President Donald Trump.
- Chad Bianco – Riverside County sheriff, Republican secondary contender.
- Katie Porter and Matt Mahan – Democratic candidates with single-digit support.
Data & Statistics – Poll Results and Turnout
- Emerson College (May 27-28, n=1,000) – Becerra 28 %, Steyer 22 %, Hilton 21 %; undecided 4 % (±3 % MOE).
- Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (May 19-24, n?5,000) – Becerra 25 %, Hilton 21 %, Steyer 19 %.
- CSU Long Beach/USC/Cal Poly Pomona (May 23-26, n=735) – Becerra 27 %, Hilton 23 %, Steyer 15 %.
- McLaughlin & Associates (May 26-28, n=800) – Hilton 25 %, Steyer 25 %, Becerra 19 %.
Turnout data show more than 3 million ballots returned as of Saturday, with Democrats 9.2 % lower and Republicans 11.6 % higher than in the 2022 primary.
Why It Matters – Potential All-Democrat or GOP-Democrat Runoff
If Becerra and Steyer advance, the general election would feature two Democrats, a scenario some Republican leaders label a “disaster for democracy.” Conversely, a Becerra-Hilton runoff would preserve a bipartisan ticket, a point emphasized by Republican officials seeking to avoid a “doomsday scenario” of two Democrats.
Official Statements & Responses – Campaign and Analyst Remarks
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that Becerra’s lead “remains solid” while Hilton’s path depends on Bianco’s decline. Democratic strategist Paul Mitchell said the race has “evolved significantly” after Swalwell’s exit and Hilton’s Trump endorsement. UCLA professor Jim Newton observed that “Californians are clear that they are not interested in a Republican vision,” attributing Hilton’s challenge to the Trump endorsement. Becerra spokesperson Jonathan Underland emphasized Becerra’s “record and trust” among voters. Steyer campaign manager Heather Hargreaves framed the contest as a choice between “status-quo high prices and corporate-controlled politics” versus “single-payer health care, affordable homes, and lower utility costs.”
Criticism & Opposition – Accusations of Corporate Influence and Party Division
Hilton repeatedly accused Becerra of “selling out to corporate donors,” citing $18.7 million in contributions from Meta, Airbnb, Uber, and Chevron. Steyer countered that Becerra “looks the other way” when “Chevron cuts you a check.” Becerra, in turn, warned that “we are not going to let a billionaire or Trump’s handpicked candidate take over this state.”
On-the-Ground Reports – Recent Rallies and Volunteer Activity
Hilton addressed a crowd at the Santa Monica Hilton Hotel & Suites, urging voters to “fight like we are third.” Steyer appeared at Los Angeles Trade Technical College, distributing flyers and posing with volunteers. Becerra held a rally in Long Beach, denouncing “billionaire” and “Trump’s handpicked” opponents before a thousand-person audience.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps – Divergent Poll Numbers and Turnout Uncertainty
Polls differ by up to 9 percentage points for Becerra and by 10 points for the second-place candidates, reflecting varying sample sizes and methodologies. Turnout projections remain uncertain; while early returns exceed 3 million ballots, the final composition of Democratic versus Republican returns may shift before Election Day.
Verbatim Quotes
- “With margins of error on this, you could say it's just as likely that Steyer or Hilton make that second spot.” — Paul Mitchell, Democratic strategist
- “I want us to fight like we are third. We aren’t going to let this slip away,” — Steve Hilton, rally speaker
- “We’ve seen it in this race. Chevron cuts you a check and you look the other way when they hike prices at the pump. Meta gives you money and your AI plan starts sounding like ChatGPT,” — Tom Steyer, campaign event
- “Every vote for Chad Bianco is a vote for two Democrats in the top two,” — Steve Hilton, campaign remarks
- “We are not going to let a billionaire or Trump’s handpicked candidate take over this state,” — Xavier Becerra, rally address
What’s Next – Primary Day and Path to November
California voters will cast ballots through mail-in, drop-box, and in-person voting until 8 p.m. on June 2. The two highest-vote-getters will appear on the November 3 general-election ballot, where they will contend for the governorship and influence down-ballot races and ballot-initiative outcomes.
