Australia’s Wheat Harvest to Fall 26% Amid Dry Weather

Australia’s Department of Agriculture’s quarterly crop report projects the 2026/27 winter wheat harvest at 26.7 million metric tons, a 26 percent drop from the previous season. The output will be the smallest in three years and below five-year and ten-year averages.

France 24

The decline is linked to dry conditions in New South Wales, southern Queensland and other northern regions, an El Niño that will limit spring rainfall, and sharply higher fertilizer and fuel prices tied to the Middle East conflict. Higher input costs have cut wheat-seeded area by 12 percent, prompting a shift to less input-intensive crops such as barley. The reduced Australian output, which supplies Asia and the Middle East, is expected to tighten global wheat markets and support higher prices.

BloombergMiddle East Crisis Trims Australia Wheat OutputFrance 24Reuters

Projected wheat output is 26.7 million tonnes (-26 % YoY) from 10.9 million ha, a 12 % drop and the lowest planted area since 2019/20. The forecast sits 23 % below the five-year average and 8 % below the ten-year average. Barley area is set to rise 4 % to 5 million ha, but total barley production will fall 15 % to 14.1 million tonnes. Canola area will shrink 6 % to 3.5 million ha, cutting harvest by 20 % to 6.2 million tonnes.

Reuters

In Western Australia, authorities have reported a burgeoning mouse population that threatens crops. Similar pest pressures are noted in parts of South Australia. The Department of Agriculture highlighted these biological stresses alongside the climatic challenges.

Bloomberg

The Department of Agriculture warned that ongoing Middle East conflict could keep input prices high, suppressing wheat yields. ABARES stressed the need for timely fertilizer deliveries and adequate rainfall, noting price volatility and weather uncertainty remain central to the season’s outlook.

Bloomberg

Sources differ in describing the driver of fertilizer price spikes. Some call it a “war between the United States and Iran,” others a “war in Iran,” and another a broader “Middle East conflict.” All agree the disruption has raised fuel and fertilizer costs, though the framing varies.

Bloomberg

• “If the Middle East conflict continues, the cost of inputs is likely to remain elevated for longer which could weigh on production.” — Australian Department of Agriculture report

Middle East Crisis Trims Australia Wheat Output

• “It will be crucial that adequate and timely supply of fertiliser is available and adequate rainfall is received to meet current yield projections.” — ABARES statement

Reuters

• “While there is ongoing uncertainty around the price and availability of key agricultural inputs for the upcoming winter cropping season, recent and forecast climatic conditions remain a key driver for crop performance in 2026–27.” — Department of Agriculture report

Bloomberg

• “Significant disruption” to global fuel and fertilizer supplies has resulted from the war between the United States and Iran. — Australian Crop Report

Bloomberg