Full Breakdown
UN Warns of Potentially Strong 2026 El Niño and Global Heat Risks
6/2/2026, 10:28:31 PM
Forecast Overview
The WMO forecast on 2 June 2026 a moderate or possibly strong El Niño forming in June and persisting to November. Models give an 80 % chance of above-average temperatures June-August and a 90 % chance the warming continues through November.
Background & Context
El Niño is a periodic warming of sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific that typically lasts nine-to-twelve months. The 2023-24 event ranked among the five strongest on record and helped make 2024 the hottest year worldwide, according to the WMO.
Data & Statistics
Tropical Pacific waters exceed 6 °C above average, fueling warming. Agencies label the 2026 event the strongest in a decade, but WMO notes model outputs differ on intensity. UN assessment gives a 75 % probability that averages 2026-2030 will surpass the 1.5 °C pre-industrial threshold.
Impact Overview
The WMO expects increased rainfall over southern South America, United States, Horn of Africa and hurricanes. Drought is likely in Australia, Central America, Indonesia and South Asia, while Greater Horn of Africa faces a below-normal rainy season. Cocoa regions in Ecuador and West Africa—about 60 % of output—could see yield losses that raise prices thousand pounds per tonne. Heat may expand disease and strain supplies.
Local Drought in Zimbabwe
In Mudzi, Zimbabwe, cracked dam ground illustrates El Niño-induced drought that has driven malnutrition among children under five, pregnant and lactating women and adolescents.
Official Statements & Responses
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saula warned of drought, rain and heat-wave risks, urging preparation. Secretary-General António Guterres called the forecast “an urgent climate warning” and urged a shift to clean energy. WMO said climate change does not increase El Niño frequency or intensity, though it can amplify impacts.
Criticism & Opposition
National agencies forecast a decade-strong El Niño, yet WMO notes models do not predict a strong event, creating uncertainty. Critics call for clearer guidance.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
National forecasts of a decade-strong El Niño contrast with WMO’s cautious stance on intensity. Impact assessments are limited, and the interaction with climate-change trends is not yet quantified.
Verbatim Quotes
- “We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Nino event, which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean.” — Celeste Saula, WMO Secretary-General
- “Communities that were already struggling will be pushed farther beyond their limits,” — Celeste Saula, WMO Secretary-General
- “The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” — António Guterres, UN Secretary-General
- “El Nino could have an effect that could lead to, you know, a few thousands per tonne.” — Hein Schumacher, CEO, Barry Callebaut
What’s Next
The WMO will issue updated forecasts through summer, and UN climate office will monitor the event’s effect on 2027 temperature record. Monitoring aims to guide agriculture, water-management and health agencies as the El Niño evolves.
