US-Iran Negotiations Send Oil, Bond and Stock Markets into Turbulence

Iran is reviewing a proposed agreement with the United States to halt hostilities, while the White House says talks are ongoing. The uncertainty has pushed Brent crude up about 1 % to $96.10 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $93.69, putting both benchmarks on track for their highest closes since late May. Simultaneously, the 10-year Treasury yield has hovered around 4.4 %, influencing borrowing costs across the economy.

CNBC

More than three months after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, the conflict has settled into a stalemate. Iran has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, restricting roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows. The United States maintains a naval blockade of Iranian ports, reinforcing the supply squeeze that underlies recent price moves.

CNBC

• Oil prices: Brent reported at $96.10 (CNBC), $95.00 (Business Insider), and $94.98 (AP). WTI listed at $93.69 (CNBC) and $92.00 (AP).

Associated Press

• Bond yields: 10-year Treasury at 4.43 % (Benzinga), 4.50 % (Reuters), and 4.46 % (AP).

Reuters

• U.S. equities: S&P 500 rose 0.3 % to 7,599.96, Dow Jones up 0.1 % to 51,078.88, Nasdaq up 0.4 % to 27,086.81.

Associated Press

• European indices: Stoxx 600 down 0.1 %; FTSE 100 down 0.2 %; DAX up 0.5 %.

CNBC

• Asian markets: South Korea Kospi up 1.31 % (record high); Japan Nikkei 225 up 0.17 %; Hong Kong Hang Seng up 0.73 %.

Associated Press

• Inventory draws: API-reported crude withdrawal of 3.6 million barrels for the week ended May 29, the first six-week streak of draws since January 2025.

CNBC

President Donald Trump told CNBC he “doesn’t care” if negotiations collapse and predicted crude would “drop like a rock” once the crisis resolves. In a Truth Social post, he added, “Just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end – it always does!” Senator Marco Rubio told lawmakers that Iran has agreed to discuss previously rejected nuclear issues, though he cautioned that this does not guarantee a deal. Iranian foreign minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi accused the United States and Israel of violating the ceasefire, while the semi-official Fars agency reported that diplomatic messages stopped after a “clear message” concerning Lebanon.

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Energy analysts note that the “oil complex continues to gyrate wildly amid conflicting comments out of the White House and Iran,” warning that prolonged price spikes could embed higher inflation expectations and keep Treasury yields elevated. Higher yields, in turn, raise borrowing costs for corporations and households, potentially dampening economic growth.

Reuters

Sources differ on key figures: Brent is quoted at $96.10, $95.00, and $94.98; WTI at $93.69 and $92.00; the 10-year yield at 4.43 %, 4.50 %, and 4.46 %. Additionally, Iranian media says negotiations are under review, whereas U.S. officials claim talks are progressing, leaving the true status of the ceasefire ambiguous.

CNBC

• “I really don’t care. I couldn’t care less,” — Donald Trump, CNBC interview

Benzinga

• “I don't care if they're over, honestly,” — Donald Trump, Truth Social post

Business Insider

• “Just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end - It always does!” — Donald Trump, Truth Social post

CNBC

• “really wants to make a deal,” — Donald Trump, Truth Social post

CNBC

• “The (oil) complex continues to gyrate wildly amid conflicting comments out of the White House and Iran as well as between Trump and (Israeli leader Benjamin) Netanyahu,” — Ritterbusch and Associates analyst

CNBC

Investors will watch the American Petroleum Institute and Energy Information Administration inventory reports later Tuesday and Wednesday, the U.S. jobs-openings data at 10 a.m. ET, and the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting. A confirmed ceasefire extension or a formal memorandum could stabilize oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially easing bond-market pressure and moderating equity volatility.

CNBC