Full Breakdown
June 2, 2026 Primaries: A Cross-State Snapshot and the High-Stakes California Gubernatorial Race
6/3/2026, 5:12:41 AM
The Primary Day Across Six States
On Tuesday, June 2, voters in California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota cast ballots in primaries that will decide nominees for at least 74 U.S. House seats, a U.S. Senate seat in Iowa, a Senate seat in Montana, a gubernatorial race in Iowa, and the open California governorship. In California, the top-two “jungle” primary will send the two highest vote-getters—regardless of party—to the November general election.
Context: California’s Jungle Primary and Recent Redistricting
Governor Gavin Newsom is term-limited, and the state’s 2025 voter-initiative redistricting shifted five congressional districts from Republican to Democratic leanings. The new map, approved after a Republican-led push in Texas, gives Democrats a 43-9 advantage in the state delegation. The primary will be the first test of that map and of the top-two system, which has never produced two Democrats for governor.
Major Candidates and Party Dynamics
- Governor’s race: Democrat Xavier Becerra (former U.S. Health and Human Services secretary) leads, with billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer and Trump-endorsed Republican former Fox News host Steve Hilton trailing.
- Los Angeles mayor: Incumbent Democrat Karen Bass faces Republican reality-TV star Spencer Pratt, Democrat councilmember Nithya Raman, and others.
- Iowa Senate: Democrats Josh Turek and Zach Wahls vie to challenge Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson for the open seat left by retiring Sen. Joni Ernst.
- New Jersey 7th District: Rep. Tom Kean Jr. runs unopposed in the GOP primary; Democrats Rebecca Bennett, Dr. Tina Shah, Brian Varela and Michael Roth contest the Democratic primary.
- Montana Senate: After Sen. Steve Daines withdrew, Trump-backed Republican Kurt Alme entered; independent veteran Seth Bodnar qualified for the November ballot but his signatures await certification.
Numbers That Shape the Contests
- 61 candidates are competing for California’s governorship.
- $79.6 million in outside money has been poured into the California governor’s race (Los Angeles Times).
- Tom Steyer has spent roughly $213 million of his own fortune on his campaign.
- A candidate must earn at least 35 % of the primary vote in Iowa, Montana and South Dakota to avoid a party convention selection.
- California’s primary will decide five of its 52 House races that could affect the national balance of power.
Why the Outcomes Matter Nationally
Democrats need four Senate pickups and a House majority to overturn the Republican-controlled Congress. California’s new districts could add five Democratic seats, while a Democratic win in Iowa’s open Senate seat would be a rare pickup in a Trump-leaning state. The governor’s race also determines whether California will continue to serve as a legal bulwark against federal election-rights challenges.
Official Statements and Party Positions
- Former President Donald Trump endorsed Steve Hilton, calling him “a truly fine man” and criticizing Gov. Newsom as having “done an absolutely horrendous job.”
- The Becerra campaign pledged to “protect and lead our state against Trump and his attacks.”
- Gov. Newsom signed a law criminalizing the seizure of ballots by law-enforcement officials.
- Steve Hilton supports a constitutional amendment requiring voter ID, arguing it will boost Republican turnout.
- Mark Baldassare, survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, said Becerra’s record defending the state against the Trump administration resonated with voters.
Criticism and Opposition
Voting-rights groups warn the voter-ID amendment could suppress eligible voters lacking documentation. Critics note Spencer Pratt’s mayoral bid relies on public anger over wildfires and homelessness but polls show low favorability. Independent candidate Seth Bodnar’s ballot signatures remain uncertified, leaving his November prospects uncertain.
On-the-Ground Polls
- Reuters and KPCC report Becerra ahead, with Steyer and Hilton within striking distance.
- A UC Berkeley-Los Angeles Times poll shows Bass at 26 %, Raman at 25 %, Pratt at 22 % in the mayoral race.
- Iowa Democrats view Turek and Wahls as viable challengers to Hinson, though the race remains tight.
Conflicting Reports and Gaps
Some outlets cite 61 gubernatorial candidates, while others reference “no fewer than 52” House contests, reflecting differing scopes. Polls diverge on whether two Democrats could finish top-two in California; some project a Democrat-Republican split. Seth Bodnar’s independent status is reported as “outraising” both parties, yet the Secretary of State has not certified his signatures.
Verbatim Quotes
- “He is a truly fine man, one who has watched as this once great State has gone to Hell. Gavin Newscum and the Democrats have done an absolutely horrendous job,” — Donald Trump, former President (Fox News)
- “His message about his time as attorney general defending California, particularly around issues involving the Trump administration, seems to have resonated with many Democratic voters who overwhelmingly are disapproving of President Trump's job performance,” — Mark Baldassare, Public Policy Institute of California (Reuters)
- “protect and lead our state against Trump and his attacks.” — Xavier Becerra campaign (Democracy Docket)
- “Whatever they do in Washington with the SAVE America Act or whatever, here in California we will have the chance to get voter ID,” — Steve Hilton, Republican gubernatorial candidate (Democracy Docket)
- “I think the takeaway there is tremendous dissatisfaction with Karen Bass.” — Jack Pitney, political scientist (CNN)
What’s Next
- The top-two gubernatorial candidates will face off on Nov 3, alongside the final congressional line-up.
- If no Iowa or South Dakota primary candidate reaches 35 %, party conventions on July 28 will select nominees.
- The California Secretary of State will rule on Seth Bodnar’s ballot certification before the November ballot is finalized.
