China and Russia’s Growing Influence in the U.S.–Iran Endurance Conflict

Talks over Lebanon strikes have stalled as the United States maintains a blockade, while Tehran’s “mosaic” doctrine lets it survive strikes and continue missile attacks on U.S. forces. Analysts expect Iran to capitulate, yet a war would test endurance and draw Chinese and Russian involvement.

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Iran’s 2021 partnership with China makes China its largest oil buyer and accounts for one-third of Iran’s trade. A Russia-Iran pact signed in January 2023 expands military cooperation. Iran joined Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2023 and BRICS in 2024, cementing alignment with powers.

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• Mehdi Kharratiyan, head of the Institute for Revival of Politics, Tehran

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• Jon Alterman, chair, Center for Strategic and International Studies

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• Christopher Walker, vice president, Center for European Policy Analysis

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• Arash Reisinezhad, visiting assistant professor, Tufts University

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China buys Iranian oil, creating a sanctions-evasion network, while Russia provides intelligence on U.S. forces, and Iran received Yak-130 fighters and Mi-28 helicopters; Su-35 deliveries are delayed. Shahed munitions feature in Russia’s Ukraine war, trade via Caspian Sea and rail links Iran to partners.

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Jon Alterman says China and Russia help Iran but do not need it. Christopher Walker notes China is Iran’s oil buyer, creating a sanctions-evasion network, and cites Russian intelligence sharing. Arash Reisinezhad highlights Iran’s aversion to alliances, its focus on self-reliance, and trade-corridor cooperation.

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U.S. officials favor a “neither war nor peace” approach to deprive Tehran of time and initiative. Critics argue this prolongs hostilities and undermines diplomatic resolution, while Iranian leaders doubt Moscow or Beijing can guarantee security.

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Sources differ on the scale of material aid: some describe Russian and Chinese support as “fleeting,” yet others cite ongoing weapons components and intelligence transfers. U.S. intelligence links a downed F-15E to a Chinese-supplied MANPADS, a claim Beijing denies.

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• “In Iran, a growing perception has emerged that Trump is primarily seeking to buy time,” — Mehdi Kharratiyan, Institute for Revival of Politics

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• “China has purchased large volumes of sanctioned Iranian oil, and Chinese buyers have worked closely with Iran to build what U.S. researchers and officials describe as one of the world's largest sanctions-evasion networks,” — Christopher Walker, Center for European Policy Analysis

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• “China and Russia are more important to Iran than vice-versa,” — Jon Alterman, Center for Strategic and International Studies

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Both Moscow and Beijing have signaled readiness for trilateral naval exercises in South Africa (January) and the Persian Gulf (February), showing willingness to project joint presence despite limited material aid. The United States calls for a sustained allied response to counter the support network.

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