Iran War Fuels Gas Price Surge and Shapes 2026 Midterm Politics

U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February 2026 prompted Tehran to restrict the Strait of Hormuz, a route for ~20 % of global oil, causing U.S. gasoline prices to rise.

Foreign Policy

AAA reports $4.29 per gallon, up from $3.14 last year. Washington $5.70; New Hampshire $4.37; Maine $4.35. Overton Insights finds 57 % say high gas reduces Republican support; Reuters-Ipsos finds 55 % of households financially affected and 63 % disapprove of the cost-of-living response.

Washington Examiner

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) told CNBC that security choices should not be driven by short-term politics and that price rise will not materially affect November midterms. Sen. Chris Gildon (R-WA) urged Gov. Bob Ferguson to suspend Washington’s Climate Commitment Act for a 55-cent per-gallon cut; the governor’s office, via Brionna Aho, said war-driven surge does not meet emergency threshold.

KUOW NPR

Surveys in New Hampshire and Maine show 60 % and 78 % of respondents blame President Donald Trump for the surge. Washington critics note the Climate Commitment Act adds about $1.10 per gallon and argue state policy, not the war, drives high costs. Overton Insights warns the surge could weaken Republican support.

Washington Examiner

National averages differ: AAA lists $4.29 per gallon, while other sources report $4.55 and $4.56. Polls vary on blame attribution to Trump versus oil companies and state taxes. No source directly ties the price rise to voting behavior.

The Hill

Higher gasoline costs curb consumer spending and shape political narratives that could shift voter sentiment before the 2026 midterms, harming Republican prospects. State officials are weighing temporary suspensions of climate-related taxes to ease the burden.

Washington Examiner

Negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz continue, with analysts warning restoration may not occur until early 2027. The November 2026 elections will test whether the gas-price surge translates into measurable voter shifts.

Foreign Policy

• “I don’t think national security decisions should be done based on short-term political considerations,” — Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator (R-TX)

The Hill

• “I don’t think it’s going to impact the midterms materially.” — Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator (R-TX)

Washington Examiner

• “ “If this gets resolved and resolved favorably,” he added, “if we have a government in Iran that are not Islamists chanting ‘death to America,’ funding terrorists, and trying to kill us, the long-term effect on the cash price of gas would be to bring it down, and I think the American people want the president to do the right thing for the country.” — Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator (R-TX)

Washington Examiner

• “The high gas prices caused by President Trump’s war in Iran does not constitute an emergency that allows the governor to exercise his extraordinary emergency powers,” — Brionna Aho, Communications Director, Governor’s Office (WA)

KUOW NPR

• “Fast rising gas prices are now another concerning factor that will test consumer spending and the economy as we enter the summer vacation and travel season,” — Michael Skelton, President & CEO, Business and Industry Association of New Hampshire

New Hampshire Pubic Radio