Full Breakdown
President Donald Trump's Approval Rating Hits Record Lows Among Independents
6/3/2026, 4:30:48 AM
Record Low Approval Among Independents
A YouGov/The Economist poll conducted May 29–June 1 surveyed 1,604 U.S. adults and found that only 21 % of independents approve of President Donald Trump’s job performance while 71 % disapprove, yielding a net approval of -50. Allen Houston of YouGov called it “a record-low among Independents for either term.” The same poll recorded a nationwide net approval of -26 (35 % approve, 61 % disapprove).
Polling Landscape and Recent Numbers
Other recent surveys echo the decline. Morning Consult (May 22-24, 2,204 registered voters) reported 29 % independent approval and 65 % disapproval; I&I/TIPP (late May, 1,520 adults) showed 24 % approval, 62 % disapproval. The Big Data Poll (May 24-27, 3,121 registered voters) found 39.4 % overall approval and 57.4 % disapproval, with an intensity index of -26.3, the firm’s widest negative gap. Issue-specific results show 38.5 % approve of the economy versus 56.9 % disapprove, and 29 % approve of cost-of-living conditions versus 66.5 % disapprove.
Why It Matters: Midterms and GOP Strategy
Independents historically decide close elections, and their sharp disapproval threatens Republican prospects in the 2026 midterms. Party operatives cite the poll as a warning sign for candidate vetting and messaging. In Texas, Trump’s endorsement of Ken Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn highlighted the tension between loyalty and electability, while a primary in Kentucky’s 4th District pitted pro-Trump Rep. Thomas Massie against a Trump-backed challenger, underscoring intra-party strain.
Official Statements & Responses
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle reiterated that “the ultimate poll was November 5 2024 when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump” and claimed the president is “working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more.” The administration also emphasized that “the President has already made historic progress not only in America but around the world, and this is just the beginning as his agenda continues taking effect.”
Criticism, Expert Analysis, and Party Dissent
Political scientists note the role of polarization. Brandon Rottinghaus (University of Houston) said “polarization has raised the floor and lowered the ceiling for approval ratings.” Columbia University’s Robert Y. Shapiro warned that independent disapproval “is a danger sign for Republicans in the midterm elections.” Within the GOP, figures such as Marjorie Taylor Greene, Candace Owens, Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly have publicly criticized Trump’s foreign-policy choices, especially his stance on Israel and the war in Iran. Rich Baris, director of Big Data Poll, warned that “voters have run out of patience with the administration and the majority party.”
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Net approval figures vary: YouGov reports a -26 national net, Morning Consult a -11 net (43 % approve, 54 % disapprove), and Big Data Poll a -18 net (39.4 % approve, 57.4 % disapprove). Sample sizes, respondent definitions (registered voters vs. adults), and margin-of-error ranges (±1.7 to ±3.5 percentage points) contribute to these discrepancies. Polls lack granular data on demographic sub-groups such as age-by-independent breakdowns.
Verbatim Quotes
- “That's a record-low among Independents for either term. At this point in Trump's first term, he had a -3 net job approval among Independents.” — Allen Houston, YouGov Senior Analyst
- “Polarization has raised the floor and lowered the ceiling for approval ratings,” — Brandon Rottinghaus, Professor of Political Science, University of Houston
- “MAGA is me. MAGA loves everything I do, and I love everything I do,” — Donald Trump, former President (January NBC interview)
- “voters have run out of patience with the administration and the majority party.” — Rich Baris, Director, Big Data Poll
- “It’s harder to get lower, but it’s possible depending on what he does,” — Christopher Wlezien, Political Scientist, University of Texas at Austin
What's Next
The 2026 midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, will test whether Republican candidates can offset Trump’s waning independent support. Pollsters anticipate intensified focus on economic messaging and candidate positioning in swing districts, while intra-party challenges may reshape the GOP’s national strategy ahead of the 2028 presidential cycle.
