Full Breakdown
Iowa’s Open Senate Seat: Hinson vs. Turek Sets Up a 2026 Showdown
6/4/2026, 2:26:02 AM
Primary Results and the Road to November
On June 2, 2026 Iowa voters selected their party nominees for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by retiring Sen. Joni Ernst. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) captured the Republican nomination with roughly 74 percent of the vote, while State Rep. Josh Turek (D) won the Democratic primary, with reported margins ranging from 63 to 64 percent over State Sen. Zach Wahls. The two candidates will contest the November general election.
Background: Ernst’s Retirement and Iowa’s Political Landscape
Sen. Joni Ernst announced in September 2025 that she would not seek a third term, opening the first GOP-held Senate seat in Iowa since 2008. The state, which voted for President Donald Trump by 13 points in 2024, has a Republican-controlled congressional delegation and state government, yet recent economic pressures—tariffs, rising fuel and fertilizer costs, and Medicaid cuts—have prompted Democrats to view the race as a potential pickup.
Candidates and Endorsements
- Ashley Hinson – three-term U.S. Representative from the 2nd District; endorsed by President Trump, Gov. Kim Reynolds, Sen. Joni Ernst, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune.
- Josh Turek – two-time Paralympic gold-medalist and state representative from Council Bluffs; endorsed by former Sen. Tom Harkin, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and received a joint statement from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and DSCC Chair Kirsten Gillibrand.
Funding and Advertising
Hinson entered the primary with a cash advantage of roughly $6.5 million and a pledged $29 million from the Senate Leadership Fund for the general election. The Democratic side saw VoteVets, a veterans-aligned super PAC, spend over $10 million on Turek’s primary campaign—more than the combined spending of the two Democratic candidates. The Senate Majority PAC has reserved $13.4 million for television ads targeting Hinson.
Official Statements & Responses
Sen. Schumer and Sen. Gillibrand praised Turek as a “two-time Paralympic gold medalist … working across the aisle.” Hinson’s campaign highlighted her alignment with Trump’s agenda and framed the race as a fight for “Iowa families.” Republican Senate super-PAC leader Alex Latcham characterized Turek as a “far-left politician” financed by Schumer.
Criticism & Opposition
Republican officials accuse Turek of being a “radical” who would “rubber-stamp” the Democratic agenda, while Democratic leaders denounce Hinson for supporting the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which they say will cut Medicaid for roughly 110,000 Iowans by 2034. Both sides have launched ads portraying the opponent as out of touch with Iowa’s economic concerns.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Primary vote shares differ across outlets (63 % vs. 64 % for Turek; 74 % vs. 75 % for Hinson). The Cook Political Report shifted its rating from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican,” whereas some polls (Echelon Insights) show Turek leading Hinson by a single point. No definitive post-primary polling has reconciled these discrepancies.
Why It Matters
Control of the 2026 Senate hinges on a handful of competitive races; Iowa’s seat is one of the few where Democrats could flip a GOP-held position. The outcome will affect committee assignments critical to agriculture, armed services, and small-business policy, and will signal voter reaction to national issues such as tariffs, the Iran war, and Medicaid reforms.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Josh Turek is a two-time Paralympic gold medalist who has represented his country on the world stage and has built a reputation in the legislature for working across the aisle to get things done for Iowans,” — Chuck Schumer & Kirsten Gillibrand
- “a far-left politician who is bankrolled by Chuck Schumer, and Iowans can no doubt count on Turek to repay that debt by rubber-stamping the Democrat Party’s radical agenda.” — Alex Latcham, Senate Leadership Fund
- “I know that Iowa needs a fighter … and I will tell you this: I will never back down from a fight.” — Ashley Hinson
- “I am feeling hope here in Iowa for the first time in a very long time, and this is because Iowans know that we need change,” — Josh Turek
What’s Next
Both campaigns will intensify fundraising and advertising through the summer. The Senate Leadership Fund and the Democratic Senate Majority PAC have each reserved tens of millions for November ads. Voter-turnout drives in rural and urban precincts, as well as the evolving national economy, will shape the final contest slated for Nov. 3, 2026.
