Back to today’s briefing

Story perspectives

May Eurozone Inflation 3.2% Fuels Expected ECB Hike

6/3/2026

50 10

Summary

Story summary

Eurozone inflation rose to 3.2% in May, leading markets to price a 25-basis-point ECB rate hike for the June 11 meeting.
Data showed energy inflation at 10.9%, services at 3.5%, core at 2.5%, Germany at 2.7% and Greece and Lithuania above 5%.
LSEG data gave a 94% probability of the ECB hike and euro near $1.164.
ING analyst Carsten Brzeski called the May data an “insurance” trigger for the ECB’s decision.

History

Historical Context

In 1979 Fed Chairman Paul Volcker raised rates to fight U.S. inflation that hit 13.5% in 1980 after the oil shock. His policy pushed the federal funds rate to a 20% peak by June 1981 and sparked a recession, a caution for today. In May 2024 the Eurozone sees 3.2% CPI inflation and energy up 10.9%, prompting the European Central Bank to consider a 25-bp hike.

1 of 2

Story summary

Eurozone inflation rose to 3.2% in May, leading markets to price a 25-basis-point ECB rate hike for the June 11 meeting.
Data showed energy inflation at 10.9%, services at 3.5%, core at 2.5%, Germany at 2.7% and Greece and Lithuania above 5%.
LSEG data gave a 94% probability of the ECB hike and euro near $1.164.
ING analyst Carsten Brzeski called the May data an “insurance” trigger for the ECB’s decision.

1 / 2