AT&T's Broadband Growth Faces Satellite Competition Pressure

Oppenheimer analysts note that AT&T’s long-term broadband subscriber growth, and eventually its mobile business, are being challenged by the rising threat of satellite internet services. The analysts’ research note highlights the potential for satellite providers to erode AT&T’s customer base in the home-internet market.

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AT&T has a higher exposure to home internet than many of its telecommunications peers and has announced plans to install fiber-optic cable passings in 60 million homes by the end of 2030. Oppenheimer analysts caution that the company may fall short of this target, potentially capping installations at 50 million homes.

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The analysts estimate that satellite internet could attract two million or more subscribers each year, with the annual capture potentially rising to four million by 2030. This projected shift in subscriber acquisition underscores the scale of competitive pressure facing AT&T’s broadband operations.

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Following the release of the Oppenheimer note, AT&T’s shares declined by 3.9 percent, reflecting investor response to the highlighted growth challenges.

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The analysts argue that AT&T is underestimating the pricing pressure that satellite competition will impose. They suggest that the company’s current assumptions about subscriber growth may be overly optimistic, raising the risk of a shortfall in both broadband and downstream mobile revenue.

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If satellite providers capture the projected subscriber volumes, AT&T may need to adjust pricing to remain competitive. The analysts’ concerns suggest that the company’s long-term revenue trajectory could be affected across both its broadband and mobile segments, potentially prompting a reassessment of its growth targets and investment priorities.

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• Fiber-optic cable passings planned for 60 million homes by 2030.

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• Analysts project a possible ceiling of 50 million homes for AT&T’s fiber installations.

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• Satellite internet could attract at least 2 million new broadband subscribers each year.

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• Cumulative satellite-driven subscriber gains may reach 4 million by 2030.

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• AT&T’s share price fell 3.9 percent after the analyst note was released.

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• “1155 ET – AT&T’s long-term broadband subscriber growth, and eventually its mobile business, are under pressure from the rising threat of satellite internet, Oppenheimer analysts say in a research note.” — Oppenheimer analyst, research note

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• “It has more exposure to home internet than its telecommunications peers, with plans to have fiber-optic cable passings in 60 million homes by the end of 2030, the analysts say.” — Oppenheimer analyst

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• “The company might be in for disappointment and stop at 50 million, they say.” — Oppenheimer analyst

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• “AT&T appears to be underestimating the pricing pressure it will face from satellite competition, which could capture 2 million or more subscribers per year and ramp up to 4 million by 2030, the analyst say.” — Oppenheimer analyst

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