Makerfield By-Election: Tactical Voting, Candidate Showdown, and Potential National Fallout

On 18 June 2024, 76,000 voters in Makerfield will choose between Labour’s Andy Burnham, Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, Restore Britain’s Rebecca Shepherd, and a Green Party candidate. The result will decide if Labour keeps the seat it won with 45% in 2024, if Reform could gain a parliamentary seat, or if a split right-wing vote lets Burnham win.

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In the 2024 general election Labour captured 45% of the vote and Reform 32% in Makerfield. Local elections later saw Reform rise to 50% while Labour fell to 24%. Current Survation polling puts Burnham at 43%, Kenyon at 40%, Shepherd at 7% and the Greens at 3%.

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Mayor Andy Burnham, praised for local improvements and seen as a challenger. Robert Kenyon, a plumber, runs for Reform UK on a platform but faces gender and abortion criticism. Rebecca Shepherd stands for Restore Britain, a splinter from Reform after a dispute with leader Rupert Lowe. Green candidate stresses voter choice but has limited resources.

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A Burnham win could trigger a Labour leadership contest, possibly unseating Keir Starmer. A Reform victory would give the party a parliamentary foothold and challenge Labour’s Red Wall dominance. Tactical voting may reshape future by-elections and signal broader voter disaffection.

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Luke Tryl, director of the More in Common pollster, said the Makerfield contest will be “characterised by tactical voting,” with voters “holding their noses” at party labels while backing candidates. He added that both Burnham and Kenyon have “paths to victory, but also weaknesses that could hold them back.”

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Focus-group participants voiced anger toward the Labour government and a desire to send a strong anti-Labour message. Kenyon’s past abortion and gender comments were described as off-putting to some women. Some right-leaning voters warned that Restore Britain could split the anti-Labour vote, potentially letting Burnham win.

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“I’m voting for Burnham, not Labour.” — Unnamed focus-group participant

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“I’m not a Labour fan at all, but I am a fan of Andy Burnham.” — Unnamed focus-group participant

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“I don’t like Labour but I don’t want Reform either.” — Unnamed focus-group participant

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“Reform would win quite easily if Rupert Lowe stood down, but I think they’ll split the vote on the right and Andy will probably sneak in.” — Unnamed focus-group participant

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Polling shows a narrow three-point Burnham lead, yet focus-group sentiment ranges from personal support for Burnham to a broader intent to punish Labour. No data confirm how many voters will follow the tactical voting plans.

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The by-election is on 18 June 2024. The result will decide if Labour holds the seat, if Reform gains a parliamentary presence, and whether it triggers a leadership challenge to Keir Starmer.

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