Treasury Yields Swing in Early June on Strong ADP Jobs Data and Oil Price Moves

On June 3, 2026, the 10-year Treasury rose to about 4.49 % after a stronger-than-expected ADP private-sector payroll report and higher oil prices; the 2-year reached roughly 4.08 % and the 30-year neared 5 %. By June 4, yields fell to 4.46 % (10-year), 4.04 % (2-year) and 4.97 % (30-year) as cease-fire optimism lowered energy costs. Across sources, the 10-year was reported at 4.489 % (CNBC, June 3) and 4.463 % (June 4); the 2-year at 4.078 % and 4.043 %; the 30-year at 4.989 % and 4.971 %. TradingKey listed the 10-year at 4.499 % on June 2.

May Jobs Data Exceed Expectations. U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Returns to 4.5% Level, But Citi Says Nonfarm Impact on Stock Market Has Dropped Sharply.

ADP reported 122,000 private-sector jobs added in May, slightly above the median forecast. The Institute for Supply Management’s services index later beat expectations despite mixed price and employment readings. Oil prices rose after renewed U.S.–Iran hostilities and fell on June 4 when cease-fire hopes emerged. The combination of resilient labor data and volatile energy markets has sharpened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike before year-end.

Bloomberg

TD Securities rates strategist Molly Brooks said the ADP data signaled labor stabilization but warned that inflation focus means a much weaker payroll print would be needed for a sharp market move. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the central bank may need to act soon on elevated inflation. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak ahead of the June 16-17 Fed meeting, where swaps price a quarter-point hike by year-end.

Bloomberg

TradingKey analysts warned that persistent high inflation is eroding real household income and has pushed the personal savings rate to a near-four-year low. They also argue that oil-price-driven inflation fears now outweigh payroll data as the chief market driver, challenging the view that jobs alone dictate Fed policy.

May Jobs Data Exceed Expectations. U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Returns to 4.5% Level, But Citi Says Nonfarm Impact on Stock Market Has Dropped Sharply.

Yield figures differ by up to 0.04 percentage points for the 10-year and 0.05 points for the 2-year across sources, reflecting timing and methodology variations. No consensus exists on the precise impact of the upcoming non-farm payrolls, and market reaction to the June 4 cease-fire optimism remains unclear.

May Jobs Data Exceed Expectations. U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Returns to 4.5% Level, But Citi Says Nonfarm Impact on Stock Market Has Dropped Sharply.

• “The ADP report this morning gave further signs to the market of labor stabilization,” — Molly Brooks, TD Securities

Bloomberg

• “Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack on Tuesday said the central bank may need to act soon to address elevated inflation.” — Beth Hammack, Cleveland Fed

Bloomberg

• “Swaps tied to policy-meeting dates carry rates that imply a more than 80% chance of a quarter-point hike by year-end, up from 60% last week, and an increase is considered certain by January 2027 vs March previously.” — Bloomberg

Bloomberg

Traders will watch the U.S. non-farm payrolls report due Friday for the final employment signal of the week. The Fed’s June 16-17 meeting will test whether the market-priced probability of a rate hike materializes, with swaps indicating a likely increase by year-end and near certainty by early 2027.

May Jobs Data Exceed Expectations. U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Returns to 4.5% Level, But Citi Says Nonfarm Impact on Stock Market Has Dropped Sharply.