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El Niño Likely to Hit Super-Strength, Threatening $5.7 T Loss

6/6/2026

Summary

NOAA Forecasts El Niño

NOAA and the World Meteorological Organization forecast an 80% chance El Niño will develop by August 2026.
They assign a 90% probability that the event will persist through November.
ECMWF projects Pacific sea-surface temperatures could rise 5.4 °F (3 °C) above average by December.
U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres warned El Niño will pour fuel on global warming.
Analysts estimate a $5.7 trillion global income loss if El Niño reaches super-strength, noting Asian rice planting has already fallen.

Summary

NOAA Anticipates El Niño

A wind burst after a Madden-Julian Oscillation stretched eastward past the Dateline, driving a negative Southern Oscillation Index that confirmed rapid El Niño development.
Upper-ocean heat, the second-strongest, moved east to South America’s northwest coast.
NOAA projects a 65 % chance of R-N34 SST anomalies >1.5 °C and a 35 % chance >2.0 °C for Dec-Jan-Feb 2026-27.
Analog forecasts indicate a warm winter in North America and Europe, cooler U.S. Southwest, and stormier Pacific Northwest.

Summary

El Niño Threatens

El Niño is expected to lift global food prices, raising grocery bills worldwide.
Shahin Ashraf of Islamic Relief warned the developing El Niño could be among the worst on record for vulnerable people.
Delayed rains in rural Somalia threaten sorghum harvests, leaving families without food or medicine and exposing them to armed groups.
UK advisers warn heatwaves, flooding and water shortages as El Niño risks, while harvest failures could intensify displacement.

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NOAA Forecasts El Niño

NOAA and the World Meteorological Organization forecast an 80% chance El Niño will develop by August 2026.
They assign a 90% probability that the event will persist through November.
ECMWF projects Pacific sea-surface temperatures could rise 5.4 °F (3 °C) above average by December.
U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres warned El Niño will pour fuel on global warming.
Analysts estimate a $5.7 trillion global income loss if El Niño reaches super-strength, noting Asian rice planting has already fallen.

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