Story perspectives

Global Steel Surplus Hits 745 Mt by 2028, China Leads

6/5/2026

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Summary

Story summary

OECD reports global steel excess capacity will reach 745 million tons by 2028.
The surplus rose from 640 million tons in 2025 to 745 million tons, exceeding one-third of the 1,800 million-ton 2025 demand.
Chinese steelmakers received subsidies 15 times higher than those for OECD producers, up from 10 times in 2023.
China exported 131 million tons of steel in 2025, a 153 % rise since 2020, while energy costs tied to Middle-East conflicts represent up to 40 % of production expenses.

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Story summary

OECD reports global steel excess capacity will reach 745 million tons by 2028.
The surplus rose from 640 million tons in 2025 to 745 million tons, exceeding one-third of the 1,800 million-ton 2025 demand.
Chinese steelmakers received subsidies 15 times higher than those for OECD producers, up from 10 times in 2023.
China exported 131 million tons of steel in 2025, a 153 % rise since 2020, while energy costs tied to Middle-East conflicts represent up to 40 % of production expenses.