Full Breakdown
South Dakota GOP Runoff: Gov. Rhoden vs. Doeden
6/5/2026, 11:16:49 PM
Runoff Overview
Incumbent Gov. Larry Rhoden and Aberdeen businessman Toby Doeden will face a Republican runoff on July 28 after no candidate cleared the 35 percent threshold in the June 3 primary. Doeden led with about 31 percent; Rhoden was second with roughly 25 percent. The winner becomes GOP nominee in a state where Republicans have held the governor’s office since the 1970s.
Context and Candidate Background
Rhoden became governor in 2023 after Kristi Noem joined Trump administration as DHS secretary. He previously served as lieutenant governor and agriculture secretary, highlighting property-tax-cut bills. Doeden, a businessman, markets himself as a political outsider and “the fiercest ally to President Trump in the nation.” Former Rep. Dusty Johnson (third) and former House speaker Jon Hansen (fourth) also ran.
Timeline and Vote Numbers
June 3, 2026: Primary; no candidate reached 35 percent.
July 28, 2026: Runoff between Rhoden and Doeden.
November 2026: General election versus Democrat Dan Ahlers.
Doeden received 30.6 percent, Rhoden just over 25 percent, Johnson 23 percent, Hansen 21 percent. Doeden has loaned his campaign $4 million.
Stakes and Potential Impact
If Doeden maintains his lead, Rhoden could be the first sitting governor to lose a GOP primary since Kansas Gov. Jeff Colyer in 2018. The runoff will test the influence of Trump-aligned outsiders versus an incumbent with a legislative record. The GOP’s dominance makes the nominee heavily favored to retain the governor’s mansion in November.
Official Statements
Rhoden defended recent property-tax-cut bills and the sales-tax increases, stating the state’s economy is sound. Doeden pledged to eliminate property taxes, cut spending, and present himself as a pro-business candidate. Johnson expressed disappointment at his loss but pledged continued support for Republican candidates. The Trump campaign confirmed it has not endorsed either candidate.
Criticism and Opposition
A PAC supporting Doeden aired ads accusing Rhoden of using sales-tax hikes to fund property-tax cuts. Doeden and Johnson criticized Rhoden and Hansen for the same tax approach, while Rhoden and Hansen defended it as fiscally necessary.
Conflicting Reports
Vote-share figures vary: Doeden’s support appears as 30.6 percent, “roughly 31 percent,” and 31 percent; Rhoden’s share is listed as 25 percent, “just over 25 percent,” and 25 percent. No further demographic polling is provided.
Verbatim Quotes
- “I will be the most pro-business governor this state has ever seen,” — Toby Doeden, candidate
- “Some folks want you to think South Dakota's broken. It's not.” — Larry Rhoden, campaign ad
- “It has been the honor of my lifetime to represent South Dakota in Congress these past eight years.” — Dusty Johnson, former U.S. Representative
- “While I am disappointed in the outcome, I am committed to helping Republican candidates get elected in November.” — Dusty Johnson, post-primary statement
- “a total political outsider who’s tired of the government’s failure to deliver on its promises” — Campaign website excerpt
- “the fiercest ally to President Trump in the nation.” — Toby Doeden, campaign material
Next Steps
The July 28 runoff will decide the GOP nominee, who will face Democrat Dan Ahlers in November. Both campaigns are expected to intensify messaging on property-tax policy and alignment with President Trump as the election approaches.
