Full Breakdown
Arthur Hayes Dumps HYPE and NEAR Tokens, Citing Macro Risks Ahead of AI IPO Wave
6/6/2026, 12:00:07 AM
Core Event
On June 4, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes announced he sold his entire holdings of Hyperliquid’s HYPE token and Near Protocol’s NEAR token. Onchain Lens recorded a sale of 247,334 HYPE for roughly $18 million; the NEAR amount was not disclosed. Within 24 hours, HYPE fell 8.4 % to $65 and NEAR dropped 17.4 % to $2.34.
Background
Earlier in 2024 Hayes set aggressive price targets—$150 for HYPE by August 2026 and a 20-fold rally for NEAR by 2027—making HYPE one of his two largest non-Bitcoin positions after ZCash. His June exit therefore reverses a previously bullish stance.
Five Macro Drivers of the Exit
Hayes cited five macro drivers: rising energy costs from the Iran-related Middle-East war; a pipeline of three “mega AI IPOs” (OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX) slated for early Q3 2026 that could pull institutional capital from crypto; an anticipated anti-AI stance by President Donald Trump before the U.S. midterms; expected market peaks across assets before September; and personal profit-taking, including a planned “two-step in beefa” vacation.
Data & Statistics
Hayes sold 247,334 HYPE for about $18 million; the NEAR sale size was not disclosed. Hyperliquid’s Q1 2026 report showed $215 million gross revenue, 71.5 % alpha over Bitcoin, and four HYPE ETF filings (Grayscale, VanEck, 21Shares, Bitwise). Polymarket data indicate 74 % of traders expect OpenAI’s IPO by year-end, while only 35 % see it before September. SpaceX filed an S-1 in May, targeting a June 12 listing; Anthropic may go public as early as October; OpenAI’s confidential filing could lead to a September debut.
Impact & Criticism
Analysts warn that the AI IPO wave could siphon liquidity from Bitcoin and broader crypto markets, potentially weakening price stability. Industry participants echo this concern, noting that institutional capital may shift toward the high-profile AI offerings, leaving crypto with reduced depth.
Official Statements & Responses
In his X post, Hayes said market peaks are likely before September and declared it was “time to take profit.” He framed the exit as a tactical risk-management decision rather than a loss of conviction, and previewed an essay titled “Reality Test” to be released the following Tuesday.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Predictions for OpenAI’s IPO diverge: 74 % of traders expect a year-end debut, while only 35 % anticipate a September listing. The precise NEAR amount sold by Hayes remains undisclosed, leaving its market impact uncertain.
Verbatim Quotes
- “I think highs in mrkts will happen btw now and September,” — Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder (X post)
- “time to take profit.” — Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder (X post)
- “two-step in beefa” — Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder (X post)
- “mega AI IPOs” — Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder (X post)
What’s Next
The three AI IPOs—OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX—are expected to file and list between June and September 2026. Hayes’ “Reality Test” essay will detail his macro outlook, while market observers watch crypto liquidity as institutional funds shift toward AI offerings.
