Strong NRA Approval Correlates with Greater Support for Political Violence, Survey Finds

A nationally representative longitudinal survey by Ipsos of 8,361 U.S. adults (second wave, mid-2023) examined the link between National Rifle Association (NRA) approval and support for political violence. In 2022, 27 % reported strong NRA approval, while 46.6 % reported none. Strong approvers were twice as likely to view violence as usually justified for at least one political goal (44 % vs 21.5 %) and more willing to act personally: 10.6 % would consider lone-actor violence versus 1.9 % of non-approvers, and 4.2 % said they might shoot to advance a goal versus 0.8 %.

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The National Rifle Association is one of the United States’ most prominent social-movement organizations. Prior research links NRA support to higher rates of carrying loaded firearms in public and to strongly conservative political views. The group’s capacity to mobilize large numbers of supporters extends beyond its firearm-owner base.

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• Strong NRA approval: 27 % of respondents; no approval: 46.6 %

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• View violence as justified for at least one goal: 44 % vs 21.5 %

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• Willingness to commit lone-actor violence or shooting to advance a goal: 10.6 % vs 1.9 % (violence) and 4.2 % vs 0.8 % (shooting)

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• Personal firearm ownership: 49.8 % of approvers vs 15.5 % of non-approvers

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Garen J. Wintemute, professor of emergency medicine and director of the Centers for Violence Prevention at UC Davis, called political violence a public-health issue. He said the NRA’s influence extends to non-owners and that it can still mobilize armed supporters. The authors plan to test interventions to curb political-violence support and to assess NRA supporters who reject violence as messengers.

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The authors warned the findings do not establish causality. Approval data were collected in 2022, before the NRA’s 2021 bankruptcy filing and before 2024 court verdicts on financial misconduct, which may have shifted public sentiment. Mass shootings or political conflicts could also alter attitudes, leaving the observed relationships uncertain.

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• “We view violence, including political violence, as a health problem,” — Garen J. Wintemute, Distinguished Professor of Emergency Medicine, UC Davis

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• “Only half of the NRA approvers (but a higher proportion than of non-approvers) reported personal ownership of firearms (approvers 49.8%, non-approvers 15.5%),” — Garen J. Wintemute

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• “The NRA is one of the most widely known social movement organizations in the United States, and its sphere of influence extends beyond firearm owners,” — Garen J. Wintemute

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• “NRA approval is likely less prevalent now than in 2022,” — Garen J. Wintemute

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Future work will study how external events affect political-violence attitudes and will pilot preventive interventions. Investigators propose that NRA supporters who reject violence could act as credible messengers for a non-violent culture.

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